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AUDUSD Scalps Target Channel Break- Bearish Sub 9300

AUDUSD Scalps Target Channel Break- Bearish Sub 9300

2014-05-20 19:58:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • AUDUSD breaks below technical support
  • May opening range low in focus 9200
  • Limited event risk into weekend

AUDUSD Daily Chart

AUDUSD Scalps Target Channel Break- Bearish Sub 9300

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • AUDUSD breaks below key support / 2014 TL at 9300- bearish
  • Key support objective now 9200/17- bullish invalidation
  • Break targets 9155/70, 9080/93
  • Breach above 9330 (bearish invalidation) targets 9405, 9460
  • Daily RSI break below 2014 TL support trigger- bearish
  • Event Risk Ahead: FOMC Minutes tomorrow

AUDUSD Scalp Chart

AUDUSD Scalps Target Channel Break- Bearish Sub 9300

Notes: The AUDUSD has broken below key support at 9300 with the move invalidating a larger channel support structure dating back to the January 2014 low. Our focus remains weighted to the short-side while below this level while noting key support at 9200/17. This region is defined by the April & May lows and a confluence of key Fibonacci retracements/extensions dating as far back as 2010.

Bottom line: look to sell rallies while below 9300 with only a breach above 9330 invalidating our near-term directional bias. Use caution heading into the release of the FOMC minutes tomorrow with USD crosses likely to see some added volatility on the release. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets



Technical Relevance

Resistance Target 1



23.6% Retracement

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

9294 -9302

100% Ext / 61.8% Retrace

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min


61.8% Ext / 61.8% Retracement

Break Target 2



Weekly ORH

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min


May High / 78.6% Retracement

Break Target 4



2014 High

Support Target 1



78.6% Retracement / 1.618% Ext

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min


May & April ORL / 50% & 61.8% Rtrce / 78.6% Ext

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min


38.2% Retrce / 2.618% & 100% Ext / 200DMA

Break Target 2



Soft Support / Pivot

Break Target 3



38.2% Retracement / Jan, Feb High(s)

Break Target 4



50% Retracement

Break Target 5



Soft Support / Pivot

Break Target 6



61.8% Retracement

Average True Range

Daily (20)


Profit Targets 14-16pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars Wednesday and Thursday this week on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 15:30 GMT (11:30ET)

Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.