Talking Points

  • AUDNZD rally at risk below key resistance threshold
  • Immediate scalp bias against 1.0825
  • Playing the trendlines above the March High

AUDNZD Daily Chart

Forex-AUDNZD-Approaches-Key-Inflection-Point--1.0825-Make-or-Break_body_Picture_2.png, AUDNZD Approaches Key Inflection Point- 1.0825 Make or Break

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • AUDNZD at key resistance threshold 1.0817/28 / March 2013TL resistance
  • Key support 1.0738/46& 1.0645- bullish invalidation
  • Topside breach targets resistance objectives into 2014 high &1.0978/85
  • Look for daily RSI reversal sub-60 for validation
  • Limited event risk until April 9th- Australian Employment & Chinese Trade Balance

AUDNZD Scalp Chart

Forex-AUDNZD-Approaches-Key-Inflection-Point--1.0825-Make-or-Break_body_Picture_1.png, AUDNZD Approaches Key Inflection Point- 1.0825 Make or Break

Notes: Although the weekly opening range did clearly break to the topside with the move surpassing 1.0712, our immediate focus is now against the 1.0812/25 key resistance range. The region is defined by the 61.8% extension taken from the advance off the 2014 low, the 100-day moving average, trendline resistance dating back to the 2013 high and the February 4th close (2014 high-day). Intra-day RSI divergence and a trendline trigger break earlier today has us holding shorts against this high with a move below 1.0746/38 offering further conviction on short exposure.

On a side note, it’s worth noting that the current price signature closely resembles what we saw in August - November of 2013. That was just before the pair turned over into fresh yearly lows. While it’s too early to tell whether we will repeat this pattern, a decisive move below the March low would put the broader downtrend back into focus eyeing the 2014 low at 1.0490 and the 2005 low at 1.0428.

Bottom line: the pair is coming into a key inflection point here and the topside remains vulnerable below 1.0825. Look to sell rallies / breaks of support while below this level with a move below the weekly ORL suggesting a more significant high may have been put in. That said, we’ll respect a breach above this threshold with such a scenario shifting our near-term scalp bias back to the topside with immediate targets seen at 1.0850/57 and the 1.09 region. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets




Resistance Target 1

Daily / 30min


61.8% Ext / Feb 4th Close / 100DMA / TL Resistance

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min


100% Extension / 78.6% Retracement

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min


38.2% & 88.6% Retrace(s) / Jan High

Break Target 2



2014 High

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min


100% & 1.618% Extension(s)

Resistance Target 1



61.8% Retracement

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min


23.6% & 50% Retrace(s) / Last Week’s High / TL

Break Target 1



Weekly ORH

Break Target 2



50% Retracement

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min


Weekly ORL / 61.8% Retracement

Break Target 5



78.% Retracement

Average True Range

Daily (20)


Profit Targets 17-19pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars on Thursday mornings on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)

Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video