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AUDUSD Setup Pending Weekly Range Break- At Risk Below 9300

AUDUSD Setup Pending Weekly Range Break- At Risk Below 9300

2014-04-02 19:04:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Talking Points

  • AUDUSD up nearly 7.5% off 2014 low
  • Rally at risk below key resistance
  • Weekly/Monthly Opening Ranges taking shape just below

AUDUSD Daily Chart

Forex-AUDUSD-Setup-Pending-Weekly-Range-Break--At-Risk-Below-9300_body_AUDUSD_DAILY.png, AUDUSD Setup Pending Weekly Range Break- At Risk Below 9300

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • AUDUSD Weekly/Monthly opening range taking shape below key resistance 9308/38
  • Near-term bias shifts lower with break below 9208/18
  • Subsequent support objectives 9140/47, 9080 & 9046
  • Breach above 9338 targets resistance at 9394 & 9522 (H&S objective)
  • Daily RSI holds Sub-70 suggests near-term momentum waning
  • Momentum support trigger pending
  • Event Risk Ahead- US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday

AUDUSD Scalp Chart

Forex-AUDUSD-Setup-Pending-Weekly-Range-Break--At-Risk-Below-9300_body_AUDUSD_SCalp.png, AUDUSD Setup Pending Weekly Range Break- At Risk Below 9300

Notes: Since our last AUDUSD update in March, the pair has pushed higher taking out the inital topside objectives before failing just ahead of the 100% extension taken form the 2014 low at 9308. The pair has now offered a well-defined weekly opening range (9218-9303) just below key resistance with long exposure at risk below the weekly high heading into Friday’s NFP report. Although an intra-day outside reversal candle at fresh 4-month highs earlier in the week did put a bearish tone on the pair, we await a break below the weekly range low to offer further conviction that a near-term high may be in place.

Bottom line: we’ll look for a definitive break of the weekly open to validate our scalp bias with our initial focus against the 9308/38 resistance range. That said, it’s important to note that the Aussie continues to trade within the confines of an ascending channel formation dating back to the January lows and a breach above this thresholds puts the topside back in play eyeing objectives up into the 9500 region. A break sub-9080 is needed to shift the broader focus back to the short side. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Significance

Resistance Target 1

30min

9257

Soft Resistance / Sunday Asia High

Resistance Target 2

Daily / 30min

9303/08

100% Extension / Weekly ORH

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

9339/42

61.8% Retracement / 1.618% Extension

Break Target 1

Daily

9393

38.2% Retracement

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min

9447

Soft Resistance / Nov Swing High

Break Target 3

Daily

9522

78.6% Retracement

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

9205/19

23.6%, 50%, 61.8% Retrc(s) / 100% Ext / Wkly ORL

Break Target 1

30min

9167

100% Fib Extension

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min

9144/47

61.8% Ext / 38.2% Retrace / 200DMA (9140)

Break Target 3

30min

9110

Soft Support / Last Week’s ORH

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min

9078/80

38.2% Retracement

Break Target 5

30min

9046

2/24 High / Last Week’s Low / 61.8% Retrace

Average True Range

Daily (20)

78

Profit Targets 18-20pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars on Thursday mornings on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)

Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video

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