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AUDUSD Setup Pending Weekly Range Break- At Risk Below 9300

AUDUSD Setup Pending Weekly Range Break- At Risk Below 9300

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • AUDUSD up nearly 7.5% off 2014 low
  • Rally at risk below key resistance
  • Weekly/Monthly Opening Ranges taking shape just below

AUDUSD Daily Chart

Forex-AUDUSD-Setup-Pending-Weekly-Range-Break--At-Risk-Below-9300_body_AUDUSD_DAILY.png, AUDUSD Setup Pending Weekly Range Break- At Risk Below 9300

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • AUDUSD Weekly/Monthly opening range taking shape below key resistance 9308/38
  • Near-term bias shifts lower with break below 9208/18
  • Subsequent support objectives 9140/47, 9080 & 9046
  • Breach above 9338 targets resistance at 9394 & 9522 (H&S objective)
  • Daily RSI holds Sub-70 suggests near-term momentum waning
  • Momentum support trigger pending
  • Event Risk Ahead- US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday

AUDUSD Scalp Chart

Forex-AUDUSD-Setup-Pending-Weekly-Range-Break--At-Risk-Below-9300_body_AUDUSD_SCalp.png, AUDUSD Setup Pending Weekly Range Break- At Risk Below 9300

Notes: Since our last AUDUSD update in March, the pair has pushed higher taking out the inital topside objectives before failing just ahead of the 100% extension taken form the 2014 low at 9308. The pair has now offered a well-defined weekly opening range (9218-9303) just below key resistance with long exposure at risk below the weekly high heading into Friday’s NFP report. Although an intra-day outside reversal candle at fresh 4-month highs earlier in the week did put a bearish tone on the pair, we await a break below the weekly range low to offer further conviction that a near-term high may be in place.

Bottom line: we’ll look for a definitive break of the weekly open to validate our scalp bias with our initial focus against the 9308/38 resistance range. That said, it’s important to note that the Aussie continues to trade within the confines of an ascending channel formation dating back to the January lows and a breach above this thresholds puts the topside back in play eyeing objectives up into the 9500 region. A break sub-9080 is needed to shift the broader focus back to the short side. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets




Resistance Target 1



Soft Resistance / Sunday Asia High

Resistance Target 2

Daily / 30min


100% Extension / Weekly ORH

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min


61.8% Retracement / 1.618% Extension

Break Target 1



38.2% Retracement

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min


Soft Resistance / Nov Swing High

Break Target 3



78.6% Retracement

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min


23.6%, 50%, 61.8% Retrc(s) / 100% Ext / Wkly ORL

Break Target 1



100% Fib Extension

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min


61.8% Ext / 38.2% Retrace / 200DMA (9140)

Break Target 3



Soft Support / Last Week’s ORH

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min


38.2% Retracement

Break Target 5



2/24 High / Last Week’s Low / 61.8% Retrace

Average True Range

Daily (20)


Profit Targets 18-20pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars on Thursday mornings on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)

Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.