We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.17% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.10% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.09% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.07% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.09% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/bQLBwqrzPU
  • The Federal Reserve has made a powerful statement about its commitment to shoring up offshore $USD funding markets through the #coronavirus spread. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/fLZjxjr4L9 https://t.co/Ao7XeiY7wS
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.84% France 40: 0.80% Wall Street: -0.23% US 500: -0.26% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/aHuwHMbNl1
  • RT @DanielGMoss: $SPX Rising wedge formation signals looming reversal as price attempts to breach 2009 uptrend support-turned-resistance…
  • The US Dollar appears to be back on the offensive against ASEAN FX such as the Singapore Dollar and Malaysian Ringgit. The Philippine Peso gained. What does USD face from here? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/U8VGdJPIST https://t.co/F8pRQwz1rR
  • (ASEAN Technical Outlook) The US #Dollar fell against #ASEAN FX such as $USDSGD, $USDPHP, $USDMYR and $USDIDR. Chart patterns are brewing like a Bullish Pennant, Descending Triangle and Falling Wedge #USD - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2020/04/09/US-Dollar-Technical-Outlook-USDSGD-USDPHP-USDMYR-USDIDR.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/J7j7Kpvyx4
  • My trading video for today: 'S&P 500 Extends Bullish Gaps, Oil Awaits #OPEC, A Wave of Data Before Holiday' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/04/09/SP-500-Extends-Bullish-Gaps-Oil-Awaits-OPEC-A-Wave-of-Data-Before-Holiday.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9
  • The #Euro and crude #oil prices will be at the mercy of ongoing OPEC+ and Eurozone negotiations as members from each respective group attempt to reach a consensus on policy. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/PCH5bzb3WQ https://t.co/4IWL37kuFR
  • The $USD suddenly seems scarce amid the #coronavirus outbreak. That threatens short-term financing underpinning global supply chains, despite the Fed’s epic efforts. Get your US Dollar market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/D2p2Vl2ORK https://t.co/dLfjOEe7Px
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 2.03% Silver: 0.88% Gold: 0.21% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/PsYoOAnuta
EURUSD Opens March at Critical Resistance- ECB / NFP Game Plan

EURUSD Opens March at Critical Resistance- ECB / NFP Game Plan

2014-03-04 18:35:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Share:

Talking Points

  • EURUSD targets critical resistance range- 1.3800/30- Major Inflection Point
  • Focus is on March/weekly opening range- break to validate scalp bias
  • Major event risk on tap from ECB on Thursday & US labor report (NFPs) on Friday

EURUSD Weekly Chart

Forex_EURUSD_Opens_March_at_Critical_Resistance-_ECB_NFP_Game_Plan_body_EURUSD_WEEKLY.png, EURUSD Opens March at Critical Resistance- ECB / NFP Game Plan

EURUSD Daily Chart

Forex_EURUSD_Opens_March_at_Critical_Resistance-_ECB_NFP_Game_Plan_body_EURUSD_DAILY.png, EURUSD Opens March at Critical Resistance- ECB / NFP Game Plan

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • EURUSD tests critical resistance range 1.3800/30- bearish invalidation
  • Breach opens up targets at 1.3895 & 1.40
  • Breach scenario broader weekly targets- 1.4150 & 1.4319-1.4412
  • March/weekly opening range in focus
  • Daily RSI hold sub-60 suggests topside remains at risk here
  • Momentum support trigger pending
  • Support at 1.3660, 1.3565/89 & 1.3456/76- bullish invalidation
  • Key Events Ahead: ECB on Thursday & US labor report on Friday

EURUSD Scalp Chart

Forex_EURUSD_Opens_March_at_Critical_Resistance-_ECB_NFP_Game_Plan_body_EURUSD_SCALP.png, EURUSD Opens March at Critical Resistance- ECB / NFP Game Plan

Notes: The EURUSD has once again approached the 1.3800/30 resistance barrier- a level of technical significance that is defined by the 100% extension if the July 2013 advance and the 61.8% retracement from the decline off the 2011 high. This region has caught the monthly high closes for all three of the last major rallies seen in October, December and February. A longer-dated trendline resistance that dates back to the 2008 high also currently converges on this range and if compromised, would suggest that a more meaningful low was put in last month.

Bottom line: we are looking for a reaction off this key resistance range with the immediate focus now on the March/weekly opening range for validation of our near-term scalp bias. Ideally looking for a new high to sell into, but we’ll respect a break/close below 1.3712/20 with such a scenario eying subsequent support targets towards more critical support at 1.3565. A topside breach above 1.3830 shifts our broader focus higher with topside scalps targeting initial resistance objectives at 1.3892/95 and the 1.40-handle.

It’s important to remain prudent heading into the monthly open. Caution is warranted ahead of key event risk this week with the ECB interest rate decision and the highly anticipated non-farm payroll labor report on tap. The prints are likely to fuel added volatility and could serve as a catalyst for validation of the initial opening ranges. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Significance

Resistance Target 1

Daily / 30min

1.3767

100% Fibonacci Extension

Resistance Target 2

Daily / 30min

1.3800

78.6% Rtrc / 100% Ext / Oct, Dec, Feb Close High

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

1.3830

61.8% Retrace / Oct High / 2008 TL Res

Break Target 1

30min

1.3849

61.8% Extension

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min

1.3892/95

December High / 161.8% Ext

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min

1.3935

R2 Monthly Pivot

Bullish Invalidation

30min

1.3712/20

61.8% Retracement / Weekly ORL

Break Target 1

30min

1.3689/90

38.2% Retracement / 61.8% Ext

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min

1.3665

38.2% Fibonacci Ext

Break Target 3

30min

1.3642

Last Week’s Low / Soft Support

Break Target 4

30min

1.3609

61.8% Retracement

Break Target 5

Daily / 30min

1.3550/65

78.6% Retrace / 61.8% Extension

Average True Range

Daily (20)

74

Profit Targets 17-19pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars on Wednesday & Thursday morning this week on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 1130 GMT (11:30ET)

Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.