News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @FxWestwater: New Zealand Dollar Outlook: $NZDUSD Drops on US Dollar Bids, Wall Street Losses Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2021/09/16/New-Zealand-Dollar-Outlook-NZDUSD-Drops-on-US-Dollar-Bids-Wall-Street-Losses.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Westwater&utm_campaign=twr https://t.c…
  • The US Dollar continues to hold its ground against most ASEAN currencies as recent downtrends lose momentum. What is the road ahead for USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/PHP and USD/IDR? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/UcleaZEAaW https://t.co/dRD22S792t
  • 🇳🇿 Business NZ PMI (AUG) Actual: 40.1 Previous: 62.6 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-16
  • The Canadian Dollar has been caught in broad ranges against the Euro and the US Dollar, but can the upside bias in USD/CAD and EUR/CAD prolong? Find out here:https://t.co/8DubboXsjv https://t.co/SQAz8sCpmv
  • RT @BrendanFaganFx: Bitcoin Outlook: Crypto Adoption to Become Widespread in Wake of El Salvador, AMC? #Bitcoin #Ethereum $AMC $BTCUSD $ET…
  • Heads Up:🇳🇿 Business NZ PMI (AUG) due at 22:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 62.6 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-16
  • The 10-day range and realized volatility (ATR) on $USDMXN are the lowest since 2008 and 2014 respectively. Breakout risk is high - when the right spark comes along (eg FOMC) https://t.co/teP1XQI7W6
  • Bitcoin taking a breather today after rallying back above $47,000. 50-day MA crosses back above the 200-day MA $BTCUSD #Bitcoin https://t.co/5Yidx9WQhc
  • AUD/USD extends the decline following the larger-than-expected contraction in Australia employment as fresh data prints coming out of the US fuel speculation for an imminent shift in monetary policy. Get your $AUDUSD market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/40vc0oCeiE https://t.co/vjrF47cALn
  • Gold prices are plodding along below symmetrical triangle support, with momentum indicators starting to point lower. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/9JDAY4QlnJ https://t.co/ftL6JbIC3c
EURUSD Opens March at Critical Resistance- ECB / NFP Game Plan

EURUSD Opens March at Critical Resistance- ECB / NFP Game Plan

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • EURUSD targets critical resistance range- 1.3800/30- Major Inflection Point
  • Focus is on March/weekly opening range- break to validate scalp bias
  • Major event risk on tap from ECB on Thursday & US labor report (NFPs) on Friday

EURUSD Weekly Chart

Forex_EURUSD_Opens_March_at_Critical_Resistance-_ECB_NFP_Game_Plan_body_EURUSD_WEEKLY.png, EURUSD Opens March at Critical Resistance- ECB / NFP Game Plan

EURUSD Daily Chart

Forex_EURUSD_Opens_March_at_Critical_Resistance-_ECB_NFP_Game_Plan_body_EURUSD_DAILY.png, EURUSD Opens March at Critical Resistance- ECB / NFP Game Plan

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • EURUSD tests critical resistance range 1.3800/30- bearish invalidation
  • Breach opens up targets at 1.3895 & 1.40
  • Breach scenario broader weekly targets- 1.4150 & 1.4319-1.4412
  • March/weekly opening range in focus
  • Daily RSI hold sub-60 suggests topside remains at risk here
  • Momentum support trigger pending
  • Support at 1.3660, 1.3565/89 & 1.3456/76- bullish invalidation
  • Key Events Ahead: ECB on Thursday & US labor report on Friday

EURUSD Scalp Chart

Forex_EURUSD_Opens_March_at_Critical_Resistance-_ECB_NFP_Game_Plan_body_EURUSD_SCALP.png, EURUSD Opens March at Critical Resistance- ECB / NFP Game Plan

Notes: The EURUSD has once again approached the 1.3800/30 resistance barrier- a level of technical significance that is defined by the 100% extension if the July 2013 advance and the 61.8% retracement from the decline off the 2011 high. This region has caught the monthly high closes for all three of the last major rallies seen in October, December and February. A longer-dated trendline resistance that dates back to the 2008 high also currently converges on this range and if compromised, would suggest that a more meaningful low was put in last month.

Bottom line: we are looking for a reaction off this key resistance range with the immediate focus now on the March/weekly opening range for validation of our near-term scalp bias. Ideally looking for a new high to sell into, but we’ll respect a break/close below 1.3712/20 with such a scenario eying subsequent support targets towards more critical support at 1.3565. A topside breach above 1.3830 shifts our broader focus higher with topside scalps targeting initial resistance objectives at 1.3892/95 and the 1.40-handle.

It’s important to remain prudent heading into the monthly open. Caution is warranted ahead of key event risk this week with the ECB interest rate decision and the highly anticipated non-farm payroll labor report on tap. The prints are likely to fuel added volatility and could serve as a catalyst for validation of the initial opening ranges. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Significance

Resistance Target 1

Daily / 30min

1.3767

100% Fibonacci Extension

Resistance Target 2

Daily / 30min

1.3800

78.6% Rtrc / 100% Ext / Oct, Dec, Feb Close High

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

1.3830

61.8% Retrace / Oct High / 2008 TL Res

Break Target 1

30min

1.3849

61.8% Extension

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min

1.3892/95

December High / 161.8% Ext

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min

1.3935

R2 Monthly Pivot

Bullish Invalidation

30min

1.3712/20

61.8% Retracement / Weekly ORL

Break Target 1

30min

1.3689/90

38.2% Retracement / 61.8% Ext

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min

1.3665

38.2% Fibonacci Ext

Break Target 3

30min

1.3642

Last Week’s Low / Soft Support

Break Target 4

30min

1.3609

61.8% Retracement

Break Target 5

Daily / 30min

1.3550/65

78.6% Retrace / 61.8% Extension

Average True Range

Daily (20)

74

Profit Targets 17-19pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars on Wednesday & Thursday morning this week on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 1130 GMT (11:30ET)

Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES