News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Feels like the market has been front-running next week’s FOMC announcement, which will reveal updated dot plot projections. Expectations clearly set for a more hawkish shift in guidance. That said, if the Fed does not deliver, US Dollar bulls could be disappointed. $USD $DXY https://t.co/o2v6ibac3L
  • USD/CAD has been chopping around the past week-and-a-half, offering virtually no cues on its next direction. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/eq1YkOa3mC https://t.co/V6h8BjyeGa
  • FDA panel votes 16-3 against approving Covid-19 booster shots - BBG
  • RT @C_Barraud: 🇺🇸 Americans Haven’t Been This Down on #Housing Market Since 1982 - Bloomberg *Link: https://t.co/wWFnbAwIDO https://t.co/6G…
  • US Dollar Price Action Setups Pre-FOMC: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/analyst_picks/todays_picks/james_stanley/2021/09/17/US-Dollar-Price-Action-Setups-pre-FOMC-EURUSD-EUR-USD-GBP-USD-GBPUSD-USD-CAD-USDCAD.html https://t.co/J25MYsXCa9
  • The US Dollar is pushing up to a fresh September high after the release of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data. Get your $USD market update from @JStanleyFX here:https://t.co/2CDNZh2a89 https://t.co/bULXuCaHKk
  • I have this $SPX chart taking over one of my whole screens, and I just keep staring at that 50-day moving average... https://t.co/R9LQAuL2DL
  • RT @TheStalwart: Nice chart, which shows why countries in green on the perimeter, like Iran, Peru, and Turkey are known for their stability…
  • Selling pressure strengthening in Wall Street two hours before the close. S&P 500 down roughly 1% intraday, the largest decline since August 18th #trading $SPX $SPY
  • One of the strongest correlation with Bitcoin at the moment is the US 10-Year Treasury yield https://t.co/uZBzJ7yiXf
GBPAUD Weekly Range in Focus- Bullish Scalp Bias at Risk Sub 1.86

GBPAUD Weekly Range in Focus- Bullish Scalp Bias at Risk Sub 1.86

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • GBPAUD testing interim resistance- Weekly opening range in focus
  • Broader bias remains weighted to the topside
  • Major event risk on tap from the UK

GBPAUD Daily Chart

Forex_GBPAUD_Weekly_Range_in_Focus-_Bullish_Scalp_Bias_at_Risk_Sub_1.86_body_GBPAUD_Daily.png, GBPAUD Weekly Range in Focus- Bullish Scalp Bias at Risk Sub 1.86

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • GBPAYD 1.86 resistance range in focus
  • Breach/Close above targets objectives at 1.8770, 1.8969, 1.9089, 1.9224
  • Support at 1.8148, 1.8023/50- bullish invalidation
  • Daily RSI rebounds at 40-threhold / hold above 50-constructive
  • Weekly opening range break to offer conviction scalp bias (1.8410- 1.8587)
  • Key Events Ahead: UK employment tomorrow and retail sales data on Friday

GBPAUD Scalp Chart

Forex_GBPAUD_Weekly_Range_in_Focus-_Bullish_Scalp_Bias_at_Risk_Sub_1.86_body_GBPAUD_Scalp.png, GBPAUD Weekly Range in Focus- Bullish Scalp Bias at Risk Sub 1.86

Notes: The last time we covered this pair back on December 4th we noted a constructive outlook while above 1.79-handle. The GBPAUD has since achieved all three of our targeted objectives before turning heavy in late January as the Australian dollar mounted a counteroffensive. With the daily momentum signature finding support at the 40-threhsold, we are treating this pullback as a correction within the broader up-trend and our broader bias remains weighted to the topside while above 1.8022/50.

The immediate focus falls on the weekly opening range with the a breach above validating the TL resistance break seen last week and offering conviction on long scalp exposure. Conviction on the resumption of the topside trend is offered with a breach above the near-confluence of the monthly opening range high and a long dated 61.8% Fibonacci extension at 1.8770/95.

A move sub 1.8410/22 would put us neutral with only a break below 1.8364/70 suggesting that a larger correction may be underway. Note that a break below 1.8148 puts possible head and shoulders objectives into play with such a scenario eyeing support targets at 1.8022/50, 1.79, and 1.7663.

Bottom line: although our broader bias remains constructive, we will respect a break of the weekly opening range. Look for guidance from the GBPUSD which faces key resistance at 1.6748/54 and the AUDUSD resistance level at 9080. Note that UK employment data tomorrow and retail sales on Friday could spark added volatility on this long-range scalp and as such, prudence is warranted heading into these prints. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Significance

Resistance Target 1

Daily / 30min

1.8525

38.2% Retracement

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

1.8587/98

Weekly ORH / 38.2% Extension

Break Target 1

30min

1.8650/56

50% Retrace / 50% Ext / Dec High (1.8647)

Break Target 2

30min

1.8715

61.8% Extension

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min

1.8777/97

61.8% Retrace / 78.6% Ext / Feb ORH

Break Target 4

30min

1.8902

100% Fib Ext

Break Target 5

30min

1.8956/68

78.6% Retracement / Jan 24 close

Break Target 6

30min

1.9000

Soft Resistance / Pivot

Bullish Invalidation

30min

1.8410/22

38.2% Retrace / Wkly ORL / Last Wk’s ORH

Break Target 1

30min

1.8364/70

50% & 23.6% Retracement(s)

Break Target 2

30min

1.8306

61.8% Retracement

Break Target 3

30min

1.8223/33

78.6% & 76.4% Retracement(s)

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min

1.8118/48

88.6% Retrace / February ORL / TL Support

Break Target 5

Daily

1.8022/50

38.2% & 23.6% Retrace(s) / Jan Low

Break Target 6

Daily

1.7900

December Low

Average True Range

Daily (20)

215

Profit Targets 51-53pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars this week Monday- Thursday mornings on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 1230 GMT (8:30ET)

Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES