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GBPCAD Challenging Feb Range High- Scalp Bias Bullish Above 1.8037

GBPCAD Challenging Feb Range High- Scalp Bias Bullish Above 1.8037

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • GBPCAD testing near-term resistance- February high in focus
  • Scalp bias weighted to the topside above 1.8037
  • Limited event risk this week on this long-range scalp

GBPCAD Daily Chart

Forex_GBPCAD_Challenging_Feb_Range_High-_Scalp_Bias_Bullish_Above_1.8037_body_Picture_2.png, GBPCAD Challenging Feb Range High- Scalp Bias Bullish Above 1.8037

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • GBPCAD February opening range in focus (1.7957- 1.8293)
  • RSI has remained above 40 since July/ above 50 since October- bullish
  • RSI resistance trigger pending- Breach to offer long conviction
  • Topside objectives 1.8550, 1.8702, 1.9163/96
  • Break below weekly ORL invalidates scalp bias
  • Break below monthly ORL- bearish
  • Limited event risk this week- watch US advanced retail sales / weekly jobs report

GBPCAD Scalp Chart

Forex_GBPCAD_Challenging_Feb_Range_High-_Scalp_Bias_Bullish_Above_1.8037_body_Picture_1.png, GBPCAD Challenging Feb Range High- Scalp Bias Bullish Above 1.8037

Notes: One of my top 2014 trade ideas and a popular pair in the DailyFX on Demand trading room, the GBPCAD has been on a tear since breaking above a multi-year consolidation pattern back in August of last year. Our scalp bias shifted to the topside with today’s break above the weekly opening range high at 1.8207 before coming into more significant Fibonacci resistance at 1.8289. Look for a move surpassing the February high at 1.8293 to offer further conviction on our directional bias.

Bottom line: we’ll continue to favor buying dips / breaks of resistance while above the weekly opening range low with only a move below the February low at 1.7958 invalidating our topside bias. Such a scenario would suggest that a more significant high may have been put in place last month. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets




Resistance Target 1

Daily / 30min


23.6% & 50% Retrace(s) / 2.618 Ext

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min


February High

Break Target 1



61.8% Retracement

Break Target 2



Soft Resistance / Pivot

Break Target 3



78.6% Retrace / 1.618% Extension

Break Target 4



88.6% Retracement

Break Target 5

Daily / 30min


January 2014 High

Break Target 6



61.8% Fib Ext

Support Target 1



Weekly ORH / Pivot

Support Target 2



Soft Support / Pivot

Support Target 3



38.2% Retracement

Bullish Invalidation



Weekly ORL / 38.2% Retrace

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min


50% Retracement / February ORL

Break Target 2



50% Retracement

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min


61.8 Retracements / 50DMA

Average True Range

Daily (20)


Profit Targets 45-48pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars next week Monday- Thursday mornings on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 1130 GMT (11:30ET)

Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.