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AUDNZD Target Key Resistance- Bullish Scalp Bias at Risk Sub 1.09

AUDNZD Target Key Resistance- Bullish Scalp Bias at Risk Sub 1.09

2014-02-11 22:38:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Talking Points

  • AUDNZD eyeing key resistance range 1.0882-1.0906
  • Scalp bias awaiting conviction break of weekly/monthly opening ranges
  • Event risk on tap from Australia & New Zealand this week

AUDNZD Daily Chart

Forex_AUDNZD_Target_Key_Resistance-_Bullish_Scalp_Bias_at_Risk_Sub_1.09_body_Picture_2.png, AUDNZD Target Key Resistance- Bullish Scalp Bias at Risk Sub 1.09

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • AUDNZD eyes key resistance range 1.0882/1.0906
  • Weekly opening range in focus- 1.0780-1.0864
  • Topside breach targets resistance objectives at 1.0946, 1.1035, 1.1163
  • Broader bias weighted to the downside sub-1.1200 (August Low)
  • Support at 1.0772bullish invalidation
  • RSI support trigger pending / 60-breach would be constructive
  • Event Risk on Tap: Australian Employment Report and New Zealand Business Manufacturing PMI & Food Prices on Wednesday

AUDNZD Scalp Chart

Forex_AUDNZD_Target_Key_Resistance-_Bullish_Scalp_Bias_at_Risk_Sub_1.09_body_Picture_1.png, AUDNZD Target Key Resistance- Bullish Scalp Bias at Risk Sub 1.09

Notes: Although the broader bias remains weighted to the downside, the rebound off the January low and daily RSI divergence has kept our focus on the long side of AUDNZD in the near-term. The pair is now eyeing key resistance at 1.09 and if breached, would suggest that a more significant low may have been put in last month.

That said, the weekly and monthly opening ranges will be paramount here and we’ll continue to favor long exposure while above 1.0772. This level is defined by the February opening range low and the 38.2% retracement of the advance off the January low. Should this level be compromised, look for a break below the 1.0734 pivot to put the larger downtrend back into focus. Bottom line: our immediate focus is on a conviction break of the weekly/monthly opening range with our broader bias weighed to the downside below 1.1200.

Be on the lookout for event risk tomorrow out of Australia and New Zealand with the Aussie employment report taking central focus tomorrow evening. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week in DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Significance

Resistance Target 1

30min

1.0864

50% Retrace / Weekly ORH

Resistance Target 2

Daily / 30min

1.0882

161.8 % Ext / 61.8% Retracement

Resistance Target 3

Daily / 30min

1.0905/10

38.2% & 78.6% Retracement(s)

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

1.0945/52

Monthly ORH / 38.2% Extension

Break Target 1

30min

1.1005

50% Fib Extension

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min

1.1033/35

50% Retracement

Break Target 3

30min

1.1059

61.8% Fib Extension

Break Target 4

30min

1.1113

Soft Resistance / Pivot

Break Target 5

Daily / 30min

1.1161

61.8% Retracement

Support Target 1

30min

1.0830

Soft Support / Pivot

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

1.0772/80

Weekly & Monthly ORL / 38.2% Retrace

Break Target 1

30min

1.0746

23.6% Retracement

Break Target 2

30min

1.0718

50% Retracement

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min

1.0665

61.8 Retracements

Average True Range

Daily (20)

97

Profit Targets 22-25pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars next week Monday- Thursday mornings on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 1130 GMT (11:30ET)

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