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AUDCAD Scalps Target Key Support- Bias Bearish below 9746

AUDCAD Scalps Target Key Support- Bias Bearish below 9746

2014-01-16 21:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Talking Points

  • AUDCAD broader bias back in focus after failure to hold above 200DMA
  • Immediate focus is higher however after rebounding off technical support
  • Looking to sell rallies while below the December high

AUDCAD Daily Chart

Forex_AUDCAD_Scalps_Target_Key_Support-_Bias_Bearish_below_9746_body_Picture_2.png, AUDCAD Scalps Target Key Support- Bias Bearish below 9746

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Broader Technical Outlook

  • AUDCAD fails to hold above 200DMA- break back below Dec high- bearish
  • Key support 9580/97- bullish invalidation
  • Subsequent support objectives 9505/14, TL Support & 9410/16
  • Resistance at 9746- bearish invalidation of scalp bias
  • Momentum signature at support- Trigger break to offer conviction

AUDCAD Scalp Chart

Forex_AUDCAD_Scalps_Target_Key_Support-_Bias_Bearish_below_9746_body_Picture_1.png, AUDCAD Scalps Target Key Support- Bias Bearish below 9746

Notes: The reversal off the 99-handle early this week has put the broader trend back into focus and although the outlook remains weighted to the downside, our immediate focus is the rebound off the 9580/98 support zone. A pending trigger break in momentum offers conviction on near-term long exposure against the weekly low, but traders should remain nimble. Medium-term players are looking for short entries higher up with a rally into subsequent resistance targets with RSI conviction offering favorable short entries.

Bottom line: looking for a lower higher to get back on the short-side, with our immediate focus higher heading into the week’s end. Look for the momentum signature to reset, offering more suitable short-triggers. We’ll be following the progress of this trade and more in DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Significance

Resistance Target 1

30min

9630

Soft Resistance / Pivot

Resistance Target 2

30min

9666

23.6% Retracement

Resistance Target 3

30min

9710

38.2% Retracement

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

9746

50% Fib / Dec High / (200DMA at 9758)

Break Target 1

30min

9782

61.8% Retracement / Weekly ORL

Break Target 2

30min

9802

61.8% Retracement (Off Oct High)

Break Target 3

30min

9832

78.6% Retracement

Break Target 4

30min

9868/70

Soft Resistance / Nov Swing High

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

9580/97

61.8% Retrace / 50% Extension

Break Target 1

30min

9560

Soft Support / Pivot

Break Target 2

30min

9540

Soft Support / Pivot

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min

9505/15

78.6% Retrace / 61.8% Fib Extension

Break Target 4

30min

9468

88.6% Retracement

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min

9410/16

61.8% Retrace / January Low

Average True Range

Daily (20)

84

Profit Targets 19-21pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for a Live Scalping Webinar on Monday on DailyFX and Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday mornings on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 1230 GMT (8:30ET)

Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/scalping_report/2014/01/07/Forex_NZDUSD_Scalps_On_Deck-_Watch_8300.html

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