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USDCAD Scalps Target Topside Objectives- Bullish Above 1.04

USDCAD Scalps Target Topside Objectives- Bullish Above 1.04

2013-11-19 20:29:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • USDCHF reversal off key support / momentum rebound keeps focus higher
  • Looking to buy dips above 1.04- bullish invalidation
  • Key US & Canadian event risk on tap this week

USDCAD Daily Chart

Forex_USDCAD_Scalps_Target_Topside_Objectives-_Bullish_Above_1.04_body_Picture_2.png, USDCAD Scalps Target Topside Objectives- Bullish Above 1.04

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • USDCAD rebounds off Fibonacci support / defends November opening range low
  • Interim support 1.0416/19, 1.0394 Bullish invalidation
  • Resistance objectives 7/5 trendline, 1.0506/17, 1.0560, 1.0608/17
  • Daily RSI rebounds off 50-threshold / TL confluence- Bullish
  • Topside momentum trigger set- 50-break invalidates near-term bias
  • Key Events Ahead: US CPI, Retail Sales, Existing Home Sales & FOMC Minutes Tomorrow, Canadian Retail Sales & CPI on Friday

USDCAD Scalp Chart

Forex_USDCAD_Scalps_Target_Topside_Objectives-_Bullish_Above_1.04_body_Picture_1.png, USDCAD Scalps Target Topside Objectives- Bullish Above 1.04

Notes: The weekly opening range broke to the topside in early European trade and was further validated with a 60-breach in intra-day momentum for the first time this week. Our scalp bias remains weighted to the topside above the weekly opening range high at 1.0440 with only a break below 1.0415 invalidating this particular setup. Note that the momentum signature looks a tad stretched here with a pullback likely to offer more favorable long entries and RSI triggers.

In broader terms, the pair remains constructive above the November range low, currently just below the 1.04-figure. Be mindful of the docket over the next few days with key US data prints & FOMC minutes tomorrow and Canadian data on Friday. We'll be covering both of these Aside from the economic docket we’ll be also watching for remarks made by the FOMC officials with 8 of the 12 voting members speaking this week.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets




Resistance Target 1



61.8% Retracement

Resistance Target 2

Daily / 30min


7/5 Trendline Resistance

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min


100% Ext / 78.6% Retracement

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min


November High

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min


88.6% Retrace / Sept High

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min


78.6% Retrace / 2013 High

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min


1.618% Ext / 2011 High

Support Target 1



23.6% Retracement

Support Target 2



23.6% Retrace (longer-term)

Support Target 3



Soft Support / Pivot

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min


38.2% & 50% Retrace / Nov Low

Break Target 1



61.8% Retracement

Break Target 2



50% Retrace

Average True Range



Profit Targets 13-15pips

Other Setups in Play:

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---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

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