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AUDUSD Scalp Looks to Sell Rallies- Bearish below 9570

AUDUSD Scalp Looks to Sell Rallies- Bearish below 9570

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • AUDUSD reversal off October highs halts at Fibonacci support- Key Event Risk Ahead
  • Near-term price action & RSI shifts focus higher to open the week
  • Bearish below 9570- Short scalp conviction below 9425

AUDUSD Daily Chart

Forex_AUDUSD_Scalp_Looks_to_Sell_Rallies-_Bearish_below_9570_body_AUDUSD_DAILY.png, AUDUSD Scalp Looks to Sell Rallies- Bearish below 9570

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • AUDUSD November opening range in focus post RBA
  • Advance off the August lows seems to have completed 5-waves up- Expect correction
  • Channel support break late last month now being tested as resistance
  • Near-term resistance range 9510-9552, Key resistance 9673-79714
  • Support 9426, 9324, Key support 9220
  • Daily RSI struggling to hold above 50- Cautiously bearish below 50- conviction below 40
  • Key Events Ahead: Australian Trade Balance Wednesday, Employment Report on Thursday

AUDUSD Scalp Chart

Forex_AUDUSD_Scalp_Looks_to_Sell_Rallies-_Bearish_below_9570_body_AUDUSD_SCALP.png, AUDUSD Scalp Looks to Sell Rallies- Bearish below 9570

Notes: The AUDUSD broke below channel support late last month before rebounding off the 38.2% retracement taken from the advance off the late-August lows at 9426. Note that the rally off this mark was halted today at former channel support, currently around 9535. The broader ascent off the yearly lows looks to have completed a 5-wave advance and as such, we look for a near-term correction lower after reversing off key resistance at 9673- 9714.

Although the initial weekly opening range looks constructive, it’s important to remain prudent as we head into key event risk this week with Australian trade balance and employment data on tap ahead of US GDP and Non-Farm Payrolls. The November opening range is now in focus with price action into the close of the week likely to offer further conviction on a medium-term directional bias. That said, we will look to sell rallies / breaks of support with only a breach above 9570 invalidating our near-term scalp bias. A move sub 9426 warrants short exposure into subsequent support targets with traders advised to reduce exposure as we head into key US event risk later in the week.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Significance

Resistance Target 1

Daily / 30min

9515/18

1.618% & 100% Fib Extensions

Resistance Target 2

Daily / 30min

9550

23.6% & 38.2% Retracement

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

9570

October 24th Low / Soft Resistance

Break Target 1

30min

9590

50% Retracement

Break Target 2

30min

9621/30

1.618% Fib Extension / 61.8% Retrace

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min

9671/85

61.8% Fib Extension / 78.6% Retrace

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min

9711/19

50% Retrace / 2.618% Fib Ext

Support Target 1

30min

~9485

Soft Channel Support / Pivot

Support Target 2

30min

9460

61.8% Retracement

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

9425

1.618% Fib Ext / 38.2% Retrace

Break Target 1

30min

9382

78.6% Retracement / 2011 Low

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min

9320/24

50% Retrace / July High

Break Target 3

30min

9275/86

100% & 2.618 Fib Exts / Oct Range Low

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min

9219/22

61.8% Retrace(s) / August High

Average True Range

Daily

79

Profit Targets 18-20pips

Other Setups in Play:

Trade these setups and more alongside the DailyFX research team everyday with DailyFX on Demand

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for a Live Scalping Webinar on Monday on DailyFX and Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday mornings on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 1230 GMT (8:30ET)

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