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AUDJPY Scalp Setup Eyes Key Support- Bias Bearish Below 93.80

AUDJPY Scalp Setup Eyes Key Support- Bias Bearish Below 93.80

2013-10-31 19:48:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • AUDJPY reverses key resistance
  • Looking to sell rallies
  • Bearish below 93.80- Short scalp conviction below 92.65

AUDJPY Daily Chart

Forex_AUDJPY_Scalp_Setup_Eyes_Key_Support-_Bias_Bearish_Below_93.80_body_Picture_2.png, AUDJPY Scalp Setup Eyes Key Support- Bias Bearish Below 93.80

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • AUDJPY reversed off key resistance early this month at 95.67/94
  • Advance off the August lows seems to have completed 5-waves up- Expect correction
  • Rejection of 200-daty moving average and former TL support dating 2012
  • Support objectives 92.15, 91.07 – Key Support 90
  • Resistance 93.87, 94.68 – Key Resistance 95.67/94
  • Daily RSI trigger pending at 50-threshold
  • Key Events Ahead: Australian PPI & China Manufacturing PMI tonight

AUDJPY Scalp Chart

Forex_AUDJPY_Scalp_Setup_Eyes_Key_Support-_Bias_Bearish_Below_93.80_body_Picture_1.png, AUDJPY Scalp Setup Eyes Key Support- Bias Bearish Below 93.80

Notes: The weekly opening range broke to the downside early in the week with the pair continuing to trade within the confines of a descending channel formation dating back to October 24th high. Today’s daily candle has also made an outside reversal with short exposure warranted below the daily high. Our scalp bias will remain weighted to the downside below 93.80/87 which represents the 38.2% retracement from the decline off the monthly high and the September close high.

Near-term price action looks a tad stretched with rallies likely to offer more favorable short entries. A breach above 94.16 risks further topside advances with such a scenario eyeing subsequent topside resistance targets. Keep an eye out for data prints out of Australia and China tonight as they may charge some volatility in the pair. Note that with the November opening range now coming into focus, we will remain prudent with price action over the next week or so likely to offer further clarity on a medium-term directional bias.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets




Resistance Target 1



50% Retracement

Resistance Target 2



Soft Resistance / Pivot

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min


38.2% Retracement / Sept Close High

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min

94.51 – 91.68

23.6% Retracement / 200DMA

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min


61.8% Fib Extension / 50% Retrace

Support Target 1



Soft Support / Pivot

Support Target 2



61.8% Retracement

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min


38.2% Retracement / 50DMA

Break Target 1



78.6% Retracement

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min


50% Retrace / 100DMA

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min


Late-September Low / Oct Range Low

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min

89.97- 90.00

61.8% Retrace / August High / 2011 High

Average True Range



Profit Targets 23-25pips

Other Setups in Play:

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---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

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