Talking Points

  • Critical technical resistance between 9921- 9942 (multi-year pivot)
  • Interim scalp bias bearish below this mark- scalp levels & key thresholds
  • Event risk on tap tonight with Chinese data

AUDCAD Daily Chart

Forex_AUDCAD_Eyes_Key_Technical_Resistance-_Scalp_Bias_Bearish_Below_9940_body_Picture_2.png, AUDCAD Eyes Key Technical Resistance- Scalp Bias Bearish Below 9940

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • AUDCAD trading within a well-defined ascending channel formation off the August low
  • Embedded channel off the late September lows also in play
  • Critical resistance range between 9922/41 – 3-way Fib confluence & channel resistance
  • Longs at risk below this mark- Breach targets objectives at 9985- 1.007, 1.0077 & 1.0125.
  • Downside targets eye channel support backed key support at 9750/60
  • Daily RSI struggling to breach the 70 resistance- bullish momentum waning
  • Key Event Ahead- ChineseGDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales tonight

AUDCAD Scalp Chart

Forex_AUDCAD_Eyes_Key_Technical_Resistance-_Scalp_Bias_Bearish_Below_9940_body_Picture_1.png, AUDCAD Eyes Key Technical Resistance- Scalp Bias Bearish Below 9940

Notes: This has been an extremely popular setup in DailyFX on Demand as the pair traded into key resistance this morning. Long exposure was warranted into this threshold between 9922 – 9941 which represents a host of longer & medium-term Fibonacci ratios as well as current operative channel resistance dating back to August. This level should not be underestimates as it also represents a multiyear pivot in price dating back to the 2009 highs. While the critical nature of this threshold has us looking lower in the near-term, we will remain nimble noting that shorts scalps will be counter-trend until further evidence supports the notion that an interim high may be in place.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Significance

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

9922/41

1.618 & 61.8% Fib Ext / 50 & 38.2% Retrc

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min

9985 -1.0000

100% Fib Ext / 200 DMA

Break Target 2

30min

1.0020

Soft Resistance / Pivot

Break Target 3

30min

1.0050

Soft Resistance / Pivot

Break Target 4

30min

1.0077

1.618% Fib Ext

Break Target 5

Daily / 30min

1.0125

61.8% Retracement

Bullish Invalidation

30min

9887

23.6% Retracement

Break Target 1

30min

9860

38.2% Retracement

Break Target 2

30min

9840

50% Retracement

Break Target 3

30min

8419

61.8% Retracement

Break Target 4

30min

9790/91

38.2% & 78.6% Retracement

Break Target 5

Daily / 30min

9749/59

Weekly Low / 38.2% & 50% Retrace

Break Target 6

30min

9706

61.8% Retracement

Average True Range

Daily

68

Profit Targets 16-18pips

Other Setups in Play:

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---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

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