Talking Points
- Critical technical resistance between 9921- 9942 (multi-year pivot)
- Interim scalp bias bearish below this mark- scalp levels & key thresholds
- Event risk on tap tonight with Chinese data
AUDCAD Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
- AUDCAD trading within a well-defined ascending channel formation off the August low
- Embedded channel off the late September lows also in play
- Critical resistance range between 9922/41 – 3-way Fib confluence & channel resistance
- Longs at risk below this mark- Breach targets objectives at 9985- 1.007, 1.0077 & 1.0125.
- Downside targets eye channel support backed key support at 9750/60
- Daily RSI struggling to breach the 70 resistance- bullish momentum waning
- Key Event Ahead- ChineseGDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales tonight
AUDCAD Scalp Chart
Notes: This has been an extremely popular setup in DailyFX on Demand as the pair traded into key resistance this morning. Long exposure was warranted into this threshold between 9922 – 9941 which represents a host of longer & medium-term Fibonacci ratios as well as current operative channel resistance dating back to August. This level should not be underestimates as it also represents a multiyear pivot in price dating back to the 2009 highs. While the critical nature of this threshold has us looking lower in the near-term, we will remain nimble noting that shorts scalps will be counter-trend until further evidence supports the notion that an interim high may be in place.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
|
Entry/Exit Targets |
Timeframe |
Level |
Significance |
|
Bearish Invalidation |
Daily / 30min |
9922/41 |
1.618 & 61.8% Fib Ext / 50 & 38.2% Retrc |
|
Break Target 1 |
Daily / 30min |
9985 -1.0000 |
100% Fib Ext / 200 DMA |
|
Break Target 2 |
30min |
1.0020 |
Soft Resistance / Pivot |
|
Break Target 3 |
30min |
1.0050 |
Soft Resistance / Pivot |
|
Break Target 4 |
30min |
1.0077 |
1.618% Fib Ext |
|
Break Target 5 |
Daily / 30min |
1.0125 |
61.8% Retracement |
|
Bullish Invalidation |
30min |
9887 |
23.6% Retracement |
|
Break Target 1 |
30min |
9860 |
38.2% Retracement |
|
Break Target 2 |
30min |
9840 |
50% Retracement |
|
Break Target 3 |
30min |
8419 |
61.8% Retracement |
|
Break Target 4 |
30min |
9790/91 |
38.2% & 78.6% Retracement |
|
Break Target 5 |
Daily / 30min |
9749/59 |
Weekly Low / 38.2% & 50% Retrace |
|
Break Target 6 |
30min |
9706 |
61.8% Retracement |
|
Average True Range |
Daily |
68 |
Profit Targets 16-18pips |
Other Setups in Play:
- GBP Threatens Support on US Debt Deal- Bearish Scalp Bias at Risk
- USDCHF Scalp Bias at Risk Below 0.9170 Resistance
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---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
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