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Euro, Gold Opening Ranges in Focus- Long AUD Scalp Setup Pending

Euro, Gold Opening Ranges in Focus- Long AUD Scalp Setup Pending

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • Opening range plays on the EUR & Gold to offer conviction on near-term directional bias
  • AUDUSD price action remains constructive- interim risk for minor setback
  • Gold rally halted at channel resistance- near-term bearish momentum at risk

EURUSD Daily Chart

Forex_Euro_Gold_Opening_Ranges_in_Focus-_Long_AUD_Scalp_Setup_Pending_body_EURUSD_Daily.png, Euro, Gold Opening Ranges in Focus- Long AUD Scalp Setup Pending

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • October opening range puts focus on 1.3503 - 1.3640
  • Close below 1.3503/34 support zone targets 1.3435 & 1.3305/40 Bullish invalidation
  • Break targets at 1.32, 1.3095-1.3103 & 1.2945
  • Breach above 1.3640 targets resistance at 1.3709 & 1.3800/30
  • Daily RSI remains constructive- look for trigger break below 60 & former TL resistance

Notes: The EURUSD ran into key resistance at the bisector of an Andrew’s pitchfork formation taken from the July lows and the Feb close high at 1.3638 (actual October high so far 1.3645) with daily momentum continuing to be capped by the 70-threshold. Near-term focus remains on the October opening range with a favored break below 1.3503 putting shorts scalps into play. Topside breach keeps focus on the rally off the July lows with target eyed at 1.3709 and above.

AUDUSD Daily Chart

Forex_Euro_Gold_Opening_Ranges_in_Focus-_Long_AUD_Scalp_Setup_Pending_body_AUDUSD_DAILY.png, Euro, Gold Opening Ranges in Focus- Long AUD Scalp Setup Pending

Technical Outlook

  • Key Resistance 9510/16 backed by 9575
  • Breach targets objectives at 9714, 9811 & 9900/30
  • Daily RSI support trigger warns of possible near-term correction
  • Remains constructive above 9270 support confluence- Bullish invalidation
  • Key Events: Employment Report on Wednesday

Notes: The October opening range hasn’t been all that helpful (may still be in the process) as we continue to press higher in aussie. I’m looking for a near-term set-back to offer favorable long-side exposure with former channel resistance / current channel support possibly coming into focus in the next few days. Initial topside objectives are eyed at 9510/16 and 9575 with a breach here offering further conviction on longs into subsequent resistance targets. Wait for RSI to reset/offer topside triggers with only a break below the 9220-9270 range suggesting a deeper correction may be at hand. Overall the advance off the August lows remains constructive.

GOLD Daily Chart

Forex_Euro_Gold_Opening_Ranges_in_Focus-_Long_AUD_Scalp_Setup_Pending_body_GOLD_DAILY.png, Euro, Gold Opening Ranges in Focus- Long AUD Scalp Setup Pending

Technical Outlook

  • Gold pressing operative channel resistance
  • October opening range in focus $1278- 1337- Break to offer clarity on near-term bias
  • Support break puts larger trend back in play- objectives at $1233, $1209
  • Daily RSI divergence and trigger break suggests may see near-term correction higher
  • Bearish invalidation $1374-1379
  • Key Events: Debt Ceiling / Gov’t Shutdown debate

Notes: Few things are concerning me in the near-term on gold that could interrupt our bearish outlook. 1- Daily RSI has been unable to hold below the 40-threshold (which often suggests that the near-term pullback remains corrective within a larger up- trend) 2- The sharp rebound seen early this month came off significant technical barriers and completes key Fibonacci ratios off the August highs. Bottom line: the monthly opening ranges on gold have served us well throughout 2013 and we’ll wait for a clear break to offer further conviction on a near-term directional bias. Broader bias remains weighted to the downside below $1379 with objectives eyed at $1233, $1209 and $1181.

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---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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