USDJPY Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
- USDJPY now at Key Support at 97.56 - 97.65 - Scalp bias bullish above
- Range represents:
- 100% Fib Extension off the July High
- 50% Retrace from the June Low
- 38.2% Fib extension off the yearly high
- Break below turns scalp bias bearish- Primary objective range 96.55 - 96.74.
- Secondary support ranges 95.37 – 95.53
- Longer-term bias bullish above 93.60 – 94.00 support range
- Topside Breach above 99.85/90 triggers resumption broader up-trend
- Daily RSI rejection of 60-threshold suggests near-term momentum remains heavy
- Topside RSI Triggers to put conviction on long bias
- Key Events Ahead:BoJ Rate Decision & U.S. weekly jobless claims on Thursday, U.S. Wholesale inventories on Friday
USDJPY Scalp Chart
Scalp Notes: Although the USDJPY is not a favorable scalp ahead of the BoJ interest rate decision, our near-term bias is now in line with our longer-term outlook and remains weighted to the topside above the 97.56 – 97.65 support range. Bottom line: a break below this key support structure risks a deeper correction in the pair with such a scenario eying subsequent support objectives. The intra-day RSI signature has been bearish since the start of the week with last night’s topside trigger offering conviction longs into resistance target 3 at 98.56. Look for the oscillator to reset with subsequent topside triggers above the 50-threshold putting longs into play so long as price remains above the 97.56 support level.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
|
Entry/Exit Targets |
Timeframe |
Level |
Significance |
|
Resistance Target 1 |
30min |
97.84 |
88.6% Retracement |
|
Resistance Target 2 |
30min |
98.08 |
78.6% Retracement |
|
Resistance Target 3 |
Daily / 30min |
98.48 - 98.56 |
61.8% & 38.2% Retracements / 100 DMA |
|
Bearish Invalidation |
Daily / 30min |
98.76 |
50% Retracements |
|
Break Target 1 |
30min |
99.10 |
Soft Res / Pivot / Weekly High (99.14) |
|
Break Target 2 |
30min |
99.35 |
61.8% Retracement |
|
Break Target 3 |
30min |
99.83 - 99.95 |
50, 61.8 & 78.6 Retraces / Aug High / TL Res |
|
Bullish Invalidation |
Daily / 30min |
97.56- 97.72 |
38.2% & 100% Fib Exts / 50% Retracement |
|
Break Target 1 |
30min |
97.25 |
Soft Support / Pivot |
|
Break Target 2 |
30min |
97.00 |
Big Figure / Soft Support / Pivot |
|
Break Target 3 |
Daily / 30min |
96.56 – 96.73 |
61.8% Retrace / 1.272 & 50% Fib Exts |
|
Break Target 4 |
30min |
96.12 |
Soft Support / Pivot |
|
Break Target 5 |
Daily / 30min |
95.37 – 95.53 |
61.8% & 1.618% Exts / 78.6% Retrace |
|
Break Target 6 |
Daily |
Variable |
Trendline Support Dating 4/2/2013 |
|
Average True Range |
Daily |
117 |
Profit Targets 27-30pips |
Daily Scalp Setups in Play- USD, EUR & GBP Scalp Bias at Risk Ahead of FOMC, ECB, BoE, NFP
Reviews today’s Scalp Webinar for further insights and current trade setups
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---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
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