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GBPUSD Carves Top Ahead of Fed, BoE- Scalps Bearish Below 1.53

GBPUSD Carves Top Ahead of Fed, BoE- Scalps Bearish Below 1.53

2013-07-30 20:21:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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GBPUSD Daily Chart

Forex_GBPUSD_Carves_Top_Ahead_of_Fed_BoE-_Scalps_Bearish_Below_1.53_body_Picture_2.png, GBPUSD Carves Top Ahead of Fed, BoE- Scalps Bearish Below 1.53

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • GBPUSD Correction halts at primary objective resistance range 1.5395-1.5435
  • Broader outlook remains bearish sub-1.5550/77 (50% & 78.6% Retraces, 200DMA, TL Res)
  • Break below interim support range 1.5265-1.5280 offers warrants action on the short side
  • Daily RSI Trigger break to offer further conviction on bearish bias
  • Primary support target objectives 1.51701, 1.5012
  • Key Events Ahead: U.S. GDP and FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, BoE rate decision Thursday, NFPs on Friday

GBPUSD Scalp Chart

Forex_GBPUSD_Carves_Top_Ahead_of_Fed_BoE-_Scalps_Bearish_Below_1.53_body_Picture_1.png, GBPUSD Carves Top Ahead of Fed, BoE- Scalps Bearish Below 1.53

Scalp Notes: The cable breakdown seen since the start of the week has been quite compelling with the move sub 1.5280 putting our short scalps in play. Price action in the pound has been a near replica of what we saw ahead of the June FOMC meeting which was the onset of the major decline into the yearly low at 1.4812. With that said, it’s extremely important to note that a weaker than anticipated US GDP report and/or a lowering of the unemployment threshold from the FED could heavily weigh on the US Dollar and fuel a rather substantial rally in the GBPUSD. As long as the 1.5435 threshold is respected, we will maintain our bearish scalp bias.

Note that intra-day RSI looks to recover from oversold conditions with a run here likely to reset our downside trigger and offer favorable short entries higher up. With tomorrow marking the last day of July trade, we will remain very nimble as portfolio rebalancing could fuel some unforeseen volatility.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Significance

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

1.5280- 1.5286

23.6% & 50% Retraces / 61.8% Fib Ext

Break Target 1

30min

1.5320

Soft Resistance / Pivot

Break Target 2

30min

1.5348

78.6% Fib Extension

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min

1.5392/96

61.8% Retrace / 38.2% Retrace

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min

1.5435

100% Fib Ext / July High (1.5433)

Support Target 1

30min

1.5230

50% Fibonacci Extension / Pivot

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

1.5196- 1.5170

38.2% Retracement(s)

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min

1.5123

50% Retracement

Break Target 2

30min

1.5080

Soft Support / Pivot

Break Target 3

30min

1.5050

61.8% & 23.6% Retracements

Break Target 4

Daily

1.4995- 1.5012

61.8% Fib Ext / 50% Fib Ext

Break Target 5

30min

1.4980

Soft Support / Pivot

Break Target 6

1.4945

78.6% Retracement

Average True Range

Daily

119

Profit Targets 26-29pips

Daily Scalp Setups in Play- USD, EUR & GBP Scalp Bias at Risk Ahead of FOMC, ECB, BoE, NFP

Reviews today’s Scalp Webinar for further insights and current trade setups

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday mornings for a Live Scalping Webinar on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 1230 GMT (8:30ET)

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