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USD, EUR & GBP Scalp Bias at Risk Ahead of FOMC, ECB, BoE, NFP

USD, EUR & GBP Scalp Bias at Risk Ahead of FOMC, ECB, BoE, NFP

2013-07-29 19:45:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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EURUSD Daily Chart

Forex_USD_EUR_GBP_Scalp_Bias_at_Risk_Ahead_of_FOMC_ECB_BoE_NFP_body_Picture_5.png, USD, EUR & GBP Scalp Bias at Risk Ahead of FOMC, ECB, BoE, NFP

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • EURUSD rally halts at 1.3293 (6/19 Close – June High)
  • Topside advances likely limited- Breach targets key resistance 1.3340 (Fib Confluence)
  • Interim Support 1.3226- Break targets objectives at 1.3160 and 1.3084/1.3112
  • Daily RSI break back below 60 to offer conviction
  • Key Events Ahead: Unemployment Rate & CPI on Wednesday, ECB on Thursday, NFPs on Friday

GBPUSD Daily Chart

Forex_USD_EUR_GBP_Scalp_Bias_at_Risk_Ahead_of_FOMC_ECB_BoE_NFP_body_Picture_4.png, USD, EUR & GBP Scalp Bias at Risk Ahead of FOMC, ECB, BoE, NFP

Technical Outlook

  • GBPUSD Correction halts at Key Resistance range 1.5395-1.5435 (primary objective)
  • Broader outlook remains bearish sub-1.5550/77 (50% & 78.6% Retraces, 200DMA, TL Res)
  • Key interim support range 1.5265/80 ( Fib Confluence & 100DMA)- Break targets 1.51701, 1.5012
  • Daily RSI turns over ahead of 60-threshold (bearish), TL resistance dating back to June high
  • Key Events Ahead: BoE interest rate decision, NFPs on Friday

USDCHF Daily Chart

Forex_USD_EUR_GBP_Scalp_Bias_at_Risk_Ahead_of_FOMC_ECB_BoE_NFP_body_Picture_3.png, USD, EUR & GBP Scalp Bias at Risk Ahead of FOMC, ECB, BoE, NFP

Technical Outlook

  • USDCHF Correction halts at 78.6% Fib confluence at 9260 objective cited last week
  • Break below targets key support 9200
  • Broader outlook remains weighted to the topside above 9186-9200 (100% Fib Ext)
  • Key Interim Resistance range 9312-9333- Breach targets 9366, 9440/50
  • Daily RSI reversing ahead of 40-threshold/ TL support dating back to June (Bullish)
  • Key Events Ahead: Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday, NFPs on Friday

USDCAD Daily Chart

Forex_USD_EUR_GBP_Scalp_Bias_at_Risk_Ahead_of_FOMC_ECB_BoE_NFP_body_Picture_2.png, USD, EUR & GBP Scalp Bias at Risk Ahead of FOMC, ECB, BoE, NFP

Technical Outlook

  • USDCAD Correction halts at key support range 1.0235/66
  • Break below eyes support targets at 1.0120- 1.0158 (Broader bias constructive above this mark)
  • Resistance at 1.03, 1.0347 and 1.04- Breach puts topside back in focus
  • Daily RSI probing below 40-threshold- Topside trigger break offers conviction on long scalps
  • Key Events Ahead: May Canadian GDP on Tuesday, NFPs on Friday

USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Forex_USD_EUR_GBP_Scalp_Bias_at_Risk_Ahead_of_FOMC_ECB_BoE_NFP_body_Picture_1.png, USD, EUR & GBP Scalp Bias at Risk Ahead of FOMC, ECB, BoE, NFP

Technical Outlook

  • USDOLLAR correction loses steam just below 10,740 support target
  • Risk of a slide into Fib Confluence support at 10,675 remains below 10,770
  • Broader outlook remains weighted to the topside above 10,585- 10,611 support range
  • Daily RSI still has some room before test of 40-threshold- Trigger break puts longs into play
  • Key Events Ahead: FOMC, US GDP and ADP on Wednesday, ISM manufacturing on Thursday and NFPs on Friday

Reviews today’s Scalp Webinar for further insights and current trade setups

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

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