USDCAD Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
- USDCAD approaching inflection point at 1.0235/66 support range
- Bullish scalp bias above this mark
- Break warrants short scalps into key support range 1.0120- 1.0158 (Broader bias constructive above)
- Note daily RSI now testing 40-threshold- Break/Rebound (daily close) to offer conviction
- Move back above 1.04-handle puts broader trend back in focus- Topside targets 1.05 & 1.06
- Key Events Ahead:USNew Homes Sales (Wed), Durable Goods (Thurs) and U. of Michigan Confidence (Fri) - No CAD data of note this week
USDCAD Scalp Chart
Scalp Notes: Although our longer-term bias remains weighted to the topside, we are looking for a reaction at 1.0266 with a break below suggesting a deeper correction into 1.0120- 1.0158 may be at hand. The intra-day RSI signature has been clearly bearish since the weekly open with multiple holds at 60 and breaks sub 40. Look for a topside trigger to form in the event of a hold at 1.0266 with a break above trendline resistance dating back to the July highs to offering further conviction on long entries. Prefer buying dips into 1.0266 with a close below 1.0237 offering conviction short scalps into support. Bottom Line: the broader picture looks constructive above 1.0120 with a price action around 1.0266 in the interim likely to offer favorable short scalps/ medium-term long entries. Note that the daily ATR is rather tight here keeping our scalp targets limited and putting added emphasis on entries.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
|
Entry/Exit Targets |
Timeframe |
Level |
Significance |
|
Resistance Target 1 |
30min |
1.0300 |
50% Fib Extension / Big Figure |
|
Resistance Target 2 |
30min |
1.0317-1.0330 |
61.8% Retrace / Pivot / 38.2% Ext |
|
Resistance Target 3 |
Daily / 30min |
1.0350 |
Soft Resistance / Pivot |
|
Bearish Invalidation |
30min |
1.0370/74 |
50% Rtrce / 23.6% Ext / Wkly Range High |
|
Break Target 1 |
Daily / 30min |
1.0400 |
61.8% Fib Ext / Big Figure / Pivot |
|
Break Target 2 |
30min |
1.0428 |
38.2% Retrace / Last Week Close High |
|
Support Target 1 |
Daily / 30min |
1.0266 |
61.8% Fib Ext / 100DMA / TL Sup |
|
Bullish Invalidation |
Daily / 30min |
1.0235- 1.0240 |
38.2%, 61.8%, & 78.6% Fib Confluence |
|
Break Target 1 |
30min |
1.0218 |
78.6% Fib Extension |
|
Break Target 2 |
30min |
1.02 |
Soft Support / Pivot / Big Figure |
|
Break Target 3 |
30min |
1.0180 |
Soft Support / Pivot |
|
Break Target 4 |
Daily / 30min |
1.0158 |
100% Fib Extension |
|
Break Target 5 |
Daily / 30min |
1.0137 |
78.6% Retracement |
|
Break Target 6 |
Daily |
1.0118/20 |
200DMA / 50% Retracement |
|
Average True Range |
Daily |
73 |
Profit Targets 17-19pips |
Other Scalp Setups in Play: GBPUSD Long Scalp Bias at Risk Ahead of GDP- 15280 Key Support
USDCHF Scalp Targets New Low- Short Bias at Risk Above 9360
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
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