GBPUSD Long Scalp Bias at Risk Ahead of GDP- 15280 Key Support

2013-07-22 18:50:00 Michael Boutros, Strategist

GBPUSD Daily Chart

Forex_GBPUSD_Long_Scalp_Bias_at_Risk_Ahead_of_GDP-_15280_Key_Support_body_Picture_2.png, GBPUSD Long Scalp Bias at Risk Ahead of GDP- 15280 Key Support

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

GBPUSD Correction Underway- Broader bias remains weighted to the Downside
Break above resistance region at 1.5265- 1.5280 puts bullish interim scalp bias
Primary objective region 1.5390-1.5435
Longer-term outlook remains bearish below 1.5577 (Confluence 50% Retrace & 200DMA)
Key Support region now 1.5265- 1.5280 (Fib Confluence with 100 & 50 DMAs)
Daily RSI still some further upside before encountering TL resistance dating June high
Key Events Ahead: 2Q GDP on Thursday

GBPUSD Scalp Chart

Forex_GBPUSD_Long_Scalp_Bias_at_Risk_Ahead_of_GDP-_15280_Key_Support_body_Picture_1.png, GBPUSD Long Scalp Bias at Risk Ahead of GDP- 15280 Key Support

Scalp Notes: Although our longer-term bias remains weighted to the downside, we are looking for a new high to offer favorable short entries. Near-term scalp bias is bullish into 1.5392- 1.5435. A break above this mark risks further USD losses with such a scenario eyeing a key resistance range between 1.5550- 1.5576 (broader bearish invalidation). As opening range for the week is being put, in our focus will shift lower with a break below 1.5260 (Sunday low). A close below this mark offers further conviction on short scalps into subsequent support targets. Note that intra-day RSI remains in overbought territory and we will wait for the signature to reset to offer triggers on our subsequent scalps. Watch out for major event risk on Thursday with the 2Q GDP expected to expand another 0.6% q/q (up from 0.3% the previous quarter). Bottom line: looking for a new high to establish short positions as the pair continues to hold within the confines of an ascending channel formation dating back to the July 16th low.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets	Timeframe	Level	Significance
Bearish Invalidation	Daily / 30min	1.5392-1.5435	38.2% & 61.8% Retraces / 100% Fib Ext
Break Target 1	30min	1.5490	Soft Resistance / Pivot
Break Target 2	30min	1.5530	123.6% Fib Ext / Soft Resistance / Pivot
Break Target 3	Daily / 30min	1.5550-1.5575	50% & 78.6% Retraces / 200DMA (1.5580)

Support Target 1	30min	1.5348	78.6% Fib Extensions
Bullish Invalidation	Daily / 30min	1.5265-1.5280	61.8% Ext / 50% Retrace / 50 & 100DMAs
Break Target 1	30min	1.5230	50% Fib Extension
Break Target 2	30min	1.5170- 1.5183	38.2% Retrace & 38.2% Fib Ext
Break Target 3	30min	1.5123	23.6% Fibonacci Extension
Break Target 4	30min	1.5080	Soft Support / Pivot
Break Target 5	Daily / 30min	1.5033	23.6% Fib Retracement

Average True Range	Daily	152	Profit Targets 34-37pips