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GBPUSD Long Scalp Bias at Risk Ahead of GDP- 15280 Key Support

GBPUSD Long Scalp Bias at Risk Ahead of GDP- 15280 Key Support

2013-07-22 18:50:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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GBPUSD Daily Chart

Forex_GBPUSD_Long_Scalp_Bias_at_Risk_Ahead_of_GDP-_15280_Key_Support_body_Picture_2.png, GBPUSD Long Scalp Bias at Risk Ahead of GDP- 15280 Key Support

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • GBPUSD Correction Underway- Broader bias remains weighted to the Downside
  • Break above resistance region at 1.5265- 1.5280 puts bullish interim scalp bias
  • Primary objective region 1.5390-1.5435
  • Longer-term outlook remains bearish below 1.5577 (Confluence 50% Retrace & 200DMA)
  • Key Support region now 1.5265- 1.5280 (Fib Confluence with 100 & 50 DMAs)
  • Daily RSI still some further upside before encountering TL resistance dating June high
  • Key Events Ahead: 2Q GDP on Thursday

GBPUSD Scalp Chart

Forex_GBPUSD_Long_Scalp_Bias_at_Risk_Ahead_of_GDP-_15280_Key_Support_body_Picture_1.png, GBPUSD Long Scalp Bias at Risk Ahead of GDP- 15280 Key Support

Scalp Notes: Although our longer-term bias remains weighted to the downside, we are looking for a new high to offer favorable short entries. Near-term scalp bias is bullish into 1.5392- 1.5435. A break above this mark risks further USD losses with such a scenario eyeing a key resistance range between 1.5550- 1.5576 (broader bearish invalidation). As opening range for the week is being put, in our focus will shift lower with a break below 1.5260 (Sunday low). A close below this mark offers further conviction on short scalps into subsequent support targets. Note that intra-day RSI remains in overbought territory and we will wait for the signature to reset to offer triggers on our subsequent scalps. Watch out for major event risk on Thursday with the 2Q GDP expected to expand another 0.6% q/q (up from 0.3% the previous quarter). Bottom line: looking for a new high to establish short positions as the pair continues to hold within the confines of an ascending channel formation dating back to the July 16th low.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Significance

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

1.5392-1.5435

38.2% & 61.8% Retraces / 100% Fib Ext

Break Target 1

30min

1.5490

Soft Resistance / Pivot

Break Target 2

30min

1.5530

123.6% Fib Ext / Soft Resistance / Pivot

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min

1.5550-1.5575

50% & 78.6% Retraces / 200DMA (1.5580)

Support Target 1

30min

1.5348

78.6% Fib Extensions

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

1.5265-1.5280

61.8% Ext / 50% Retrace / 50 & 100DMAs

Break Target 1

30min

1.5230

50% Fib Extension

Break Target 2

30min

1.5170- 1.5183

38.2% Retrace & 38.2% Fib Ext

Break Target 3

30min

1.5123

23.6% Fibonacci Extension

Break Target 4

30min

1.5080

Soft Support / Pivot

Break Target 5

Daily / 30min

1.5033

23.6% Fib Retracement

Average True Range

Daily

152

Profit Targets 34-37pips

Other Scalp Setups in Play- USDCHF Scalp Targets New Low- Short Bias at Risk Above 9360

Reviews today’s Scalp Webinar for further insights and current trade setups

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday mornings for a Live Scalping Webinar on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 1230 GMT (8:30ET)

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