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USDCHF Scalp Targets New Low- Short Bias at Risk Above 9360

USDCHF Scalp Targets New Low- Short Bias at Risk Above 9360

2013-07-16 19:27:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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USDCHF Daily Chart

Forex_USDCHF_Scalp_Targets_New_Low-_Short_Bias_at_Risk_Above_9360_body_Picture_2.png, USDCHF Scalp Targets New Low- Short Bias at Risk Above 9360

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • USDCHF Correction Underway- Broader bias remains weighted to the topside
  • Scalp Bias bearish below 9513-9530 (near-term)
  • Interim support 9400- Long-standing pivot in price action dating back to 2012
  • Support range objective 9360- 9368 (note 200DMA at 9358) - Break targets 9260
  • Breach above weekly opening range (9446- 9533) Puts long scalps back into play
  • Topside objectives 9600 (Fib Confluence) and 9757- 9780
  • Daily RSI still some downside possible here- Look for basing 35-40 range
  • Key Events Ahead: Fed’s Beige Book, Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony on Wednesday & Thursday

USDCHF Scalp Chart

Forex_USDCHF_Scalp_Targets_New_Low-_Short_Bias_at_Risk_Above_9360_body_Picture_1.png, USDCHF Scalp Targets New Low- Short Bias at Risk Above 9360

Scalp Notes: Although out longer-term bias remains weighted to the topside, we are looking for a new low to offer favorable long entries. Weekly opening range break suggests correction has a bit further to go- However with intra-day RSI holding in oversold territory, we’ll wait for the trigger to reset with near-term rallies to be sold. (For more aggressive traders a topside RSI trigger breach could offer near-term longs into the subsequent resistance target.) A break back within the initial weekly opening range puts us neutral pending an RSI short trigger or breach above our bearish invalidation point at 9530. Such a scenario puts our longer-term targets back in view. Bottom line: looking for a new low to establish long position as the pair continues to consolidate into the apex of a multi-year triangle consolidation.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Significance

Resistance Target 1

Daily / 30min

9440- 9452

50% Retracement / 23.6% Fib Extension

Resistance Target 2

30min

9485

Soft Resistance / Pivot

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

9515 – 9530

38.2% Retrace / Weekly High / Pivot

Break Target 1

30min

9565

Soft Resistance / Pivot

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min

9604

23.6% & 61.8% Fib Retracements

Break Target 3

30min

9630

Soft Resistance / Pivot

Support Target 1

30min

9400

38.2% Fib Extension

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

9360- 9368

61.8% Retracement / 50% Fib Ext

Break Target 1

30min

9320

61.8% Fib Extension

Break Target 2

30min

9285

Soft Support / Pivot

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min

9260- 9263

78.6% Retracements (Confluence)

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min

9200- 9216

88.6% Retrace / June 13 Close / April Low

Average True Range

Daily

100

Profit Targets 22-25pips

Other Scalp Setups in Play- EURUSD Correction in Play- Short Scalps Eye Break of 1.3000

Reviews today’s Scalp Webinar for further insights and current trade setups

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday mornings for a Live Scalping Webinar on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 1230 GMT (8:30ET)

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