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Forex: GBP Scalps Bias at Risk Ahead of Key Support- Bearish Sub 1.54

Forex: GBP Scalps Bias at Risk Ahead of Key Support- Bearish Sub 1.54

2013-04-22 19:55:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist

GBPUSD Daily Chart

Forex_GBP_Scalps_Bias_at_Risk_Ahead_of_Key_Support_Bearish_Sub_1.54_body_Picture_2.png, Forex: GBP Scalps Bias at Risk Ahead of Key Support- Bearish Sub 1.54

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • Rebound off the 1.54 Objective cited last week has continued to play out with precision
  • Broader bias remains weighted to the downside- But may see limited declines on a move into key support confluence in the near-term
  • Looking for extremely nimble intra-day longs, with rallies offering favorable short entries sub-1.54
  • Break below key support 1.5188 (23.6% retracement, channel support) puts us back on track
  • Objectives 1.5092 (monthly pivot) & 1.5012 (61.8% long-term Fibonacci extension)
  • Breach above 1.5330 deemed neutral- Breach of 1.54 invalidates bearish bias
  • RSI Break below 40-threshold (on a close basis) offers further conviction on subsequent short scalps
  • Main events to watch this week: UK 1Q GDP on Thursday

GBPUSD Scalp Chart

Forex_GBP_Scalps_Bias_at_Risk_Ahead_of_Key_Support_Bearish_Sub_1.54_body_Picture_1.png, Forex: GBP Scalps Bias at Risk Ahead of Key Support- Bearish Sub 1.54

Scalp Notes: Bottom Line: Need a break sub 1.5188 to get aggressive on the short side. The RSI signature since the Sunday open remains constructive in the near-term- Trigger break (depending on time) to put intra-day shorts in play. Watch for contentious price action at 1.5274/82 and into the 1.5188 threshold.

-Blue Retracement- Taken from Decline off 1.54

-Green Retracement- Taken from Advance off March low

*We will remain flexible with our bias with a break below 1.5188 eyeing subsequent support targets. It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases. Use this app to distinguish the various trade sessions.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets




Resistance Target 1


1.5274 / 1.5282

23.6% & 38.2% Retraces

Resistance Target 2



38.2% Retracement

Bearish Invalidation



61.8% Retracement

Break Target 1



78.6% Retracement

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min

1.5407 / 1.5410

38.2% Retrce/April High

Break Target 3



100% Ext Off March Low

Break Target 5


1.55 / 1.5520

Big Figure / R2 Monthly

Support Target 1



23.6% Retracement

Support Target 2



Soft Support / Pivot

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

1.5188 / 1.52

23.6% & 38.2% Retrces

Break Target 1



Soft Support / Pivot

Break Target 2


1.5120 / 1.5130

50% Retrace / Pivot

Break Target 3



Monthly Pivot

Break Target 4



61.8% Retracement

Break Target 5



April Low

Average True Range



Profit Target 25-27pips

For updates on this scalp and more setups attend Michael’s Scalp Webinars or follow him on Twitter @MBForex

Reviews today’s Scalp Webinar for further insights and current trade setups

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

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