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Scalping AUD Range- Close Below 10295 Fib Support Favors Shorts

Scalping AUD Range- Close Below 10295 Fib Support Favors Shorts

2013-04-17 20:40:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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AUDUSD Daily Chart

Forex_Scalping_AUD_Range-_Close_Below_10295_Fib_Support_Favors_Shorts_body_Picture_2.png, Scalping AUD Range- Close Below 10295 Fib Support Favors Shorts

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • Initial objective cited in last week’s report failed at Resistance Target 3 just ahead of 1.06 objective (note simultaneous break below 1.0490/95 Fib confluence and RSI support trigger)
  • RSI still holding 40-threshold- Break offers conviction on shorts (would be the first break of magnitude since the onset of the February decline)
  • Key sup 1.0295 (61.8% Fib) - Break eyes objective at 1.0215 Fib Confluence
  • Topside resistance 1.0396-1.0403- Breach targets 1.0470-1.0495
  • Note: Divergence between AUDUSD and NZDUSD may suggest near-term reversal

AUDUSD Scalp Chart

Forex_Scalping_AUD_Range-_Close_Below_10295_Fib_Support_Favors_Shorts_body_Picture_1.png, Scalping AUD Range- Close Below 10295 Fib Support Favors Shorts

Scalp Notes: Bottom Line: Looking to see how we close out the session- 1.0285-1.0295 level is key. Note that we already rebounded off this level on Monday with the second approach here likely to charge a pivot in price. If we get the break- looking lower into 1.0215 where the next buying opportunity may come into play. The RSI signature since the Sunday open remains bearish with a resistance trigger break to offer a relief rally. Only a move passed the 60-threshold (with a break above weekly trendline resistance) suggests that the recent sell-off may have run its course.

*We will remain flexible with our bias with a break back above 1.04 eyeing subsequent resistance targets. It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases. Use this app to distinguish the various trade sessions.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Significance

Resistance Target 1

30min

1.0327

23.6% Fib Extension

Resistance Target 2

30min

1.0348

50% Retracement

Bearish Invalidation

Daily

1.0396-1.0403

38.2% Retrace/200DMA

Break Target 1

30min

1.0420

Soft Res / Pivot

Break Target 2

30min

1.0445

Soft Res / Pivot

Break Target 3

30min

1.0470

23.6% Retracement

Break Target 4

30min

1.0490

Long-Term 61.8% Ext

Bullish Invalidation

30min / Daily

1.0285-1.0295

38.2% Ext/61.8% Retrce

Break Target 1

30min

1.0250

50% Fib Extension

Break Target 2

Daily

1.0215

61.8% Ext/78.6% Retrce

Break Target 3

30min

1.0167

78.6% Fib Extension

Break Target 4

30min

1.0140

88.6% Fib Ext

Break Target 3

30min

1.0104-1.0114

100% Ext / March Low

Average True Range

Daily

88

Profit Targets 20-22pips

For updates on this scalp and more setups attend Michael’s Scalp Webinars or follow him on Twitter @MBForex

Reviews today’s Scalp Webinar for further insights and current trade setups

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

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