AUDUSD Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
- Initial objective cited in last week’s report failed at Resistance Target 3 just ahead of 1.06 objective (note simultaneous break below 1.0490/95 Fib confluence and RSI support trigger)
- RSI still holding 40-threshold- Break offers conviction on shorts (would be the first break of magnitude since the onset of the February decline)
- Key sup 1.0295 (61.8% Fib) - Break eyes objective at 1.0215 Fib Confluence
- Topside resistance 1.0396-1.0403- Breach targets 1.0470-1.0495
- Note: Divergence between AUDUSD and NZDUSD may suggest near-term reversal
Scalp Notes: Bottom Line: Looking to see how we close out the session- 1.0285-1.0295 level is key. Note that we already rebounded off this level on Monday with the second approach here likely to charge a pivot in price. If we get the break- looking lower into 1.0215 where the next buying opportunity may come into play. The RSI signature since the Sunday open remains bearish with a resistance trigger break to offer a relief rally. Only a move passed the 60-threshold (with a break above weekly trendline resistance) suggests that the recent sell-off may have run its course.
*We will remain flexible with our bias with a break back above 1.04 eyeing subsequent resistance targets. It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases. Use this app to distinguish the various trade sessions.
Key Threshold Grid
|
Entry/Exit Targets |
Timeframe |
Level |
Significance |
|
Resistance Target 1 |
30min |
1.0327 |
23.6% Fib Extension |
|
Resistance Target 2 |
30min |
1.0348 |
50% Retracement |
|
Bearish Invalidation |
Daily |
1.0396-1.0403 |
38.2% Retrace/200DMA |
|
Break Target 1 |
30min |
1.0420 |
Soft Res / Pivot |
|
Break Target 2 |
30min |
1.0445 |
Soft Res / Pivot |
|
Break Target 3 |
30min |
1.0470 |
23.6% Retracement |
|
Break Target 4 |
30min |
1.0490 |
Long-Term 61.8% Ext |
|
Bullish Invalidation |
30min / Daily |
1.0285-1.0295 |
38.2% Ext/61.8% Retrce |
|
Break Target 1 |
30min |
1.0250 |
50% Fib Extension |
|
Break Target 2 |
Daily |
1.0215 |
61.8% Ext/78.6% Retrce |
|
Break Target 3 |
30min |
1.0167 |
78.6% Fib Extension |
|
Break Target 4 |
30min |
1.0140 |
88.6% Fib Ext |
|
Break Target 3 |
30min |
1.0104-1.0114 |
100% Ext / March Low |
|
Daily |
88 |
Profit Targets 20-22pips |
|
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---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
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