Scalping AUD Range- Close Below 10295 Fib Support Favors Shorts

2013-04-17 20:40:00 Michael Boutros, Strategist

AUDUSD Daily Chart

Forex_Scalping_AUD_Range-_Close_Below_10295_Fib_Support_Favors_Shorts_body_Picture_2.png, Scalping AUD Range- Close Below 10295 Fib Support Favors Shorts

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

Initial objective cited in last week’s report failed at Resistance Target 3 just ahead of 1.06 objective (note simultaneous break below 1.0490/95 Fib confluence and RSI support trigger)
RSI still holding 40-threshold- Break offers conviction on shorts (would be the first break of magnitude since the onset of the February decline)
Key sup 1.0295 (61.8% Fib) - Break eyes objective at 1.0215 Fib Confluence
Topside resistance 1.0396-1.0403- Breach targets 1.0470-1.0495
Note: Divergence between AUDUSD and NZDUSD may suggest near-term reversal

AUDUSD Scalp Chart

Forex_Scalping_AUD_Range-_Close_Below_10295_Fib_Support_Favors_Shorts_body_Picture_1.png, Scalping AUD Range- Close Below 10295 Fib Support Favors Shorts

Scalp Notes: Bottom Line: Looking to see how we close out the session- 1.0285-1.0295 level is key. Note that we already rebounded off this level on Monday with the second approach here likely to charge a pivot in price. If we get the break- looking lower into 1.0215 where the next buying opportunity may come into play. The RSI signature since the Sunday open remains bearish with a resistance trigger break to offer a relief rally. Only a move passed the 60-threshold (with a break above weekly trendline resistance) suggests that the recent sell-off may have run its course.

*We will remain flexible with our bias with a break back above 1.04 eyeing subsequent resistance targets. It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases. Use this app to distinguish the various trade sessions.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets	Timeframe	Level	Significance
Resistance Target 1	30min	1.0327	23.6% Fib Extension
Resistance Target 2	30min	1.0348	50% Retracement
Bearish Invalidation	Daily	1.0396-1.0403	38.2% Retrace/200DMA
Break Target 1	30min	1.0420	Soft Res / Pivot
Break Target 2	30min	1.0445	Soft Res / Pivot
Break Target 3	30min	1.0470	23.6% Retracement
Break Target 4	30min	1.0490	Long-Term 61.8% Ext

Bullish Invalidation	30min / Daily	1.0285-1.0295	38.2% Ext/61.8% Retrce
Break Target 1	30min	1.0250	50% Fib Extension
Break Target 2	Daily	1.0215	61.8% Ext/78.6% Retrce
Break Target 3	30min	1.0167	78.6% Fib Extension
Break Target 4	30min	1.0140	88.6% Fib Ext
Break Target 3	30min	1.0104-1.0114	100% Ext / March Low

Average True Range	Daily	88	Profit Targets 20-22pips