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NZDUSD Tags Key Resistance- Scalping the Correction Sub 8675

NZDUSD Tags Key Resistance- Scalping the Correction Sub 8675

2013-04-11 19:07:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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NZDUSD Daily Chart

NZDUSD_Tags_Key_Resistance-_Scalping_the_Correction_Sub_8675_body_Picture_2.png, NZDUSD Tags Key Resistance- Scalping the Correction Sub 8675

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • 8673 Represents Key Resistance- 3-way confluence of Channel Resistance, Andrew’s pitchfork and the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement from the decent off the 2011 highs
  • DailyRSI remains in overbought territory and while our initial bias is to fade this rally, it’s important to note that things can stay overbought for an indefinite time period- As such, we’ll respect a topside breach above this formation as our broader bias remains weighted to the topside
  • Note the last times we saw 6 days of consecutive rallies
  • - Jan 27-2012- Next day 0.95% pullback then surged higher
  • - July 22, 2011- Next day small range- then surged higher
  • - March 25th 2011- Next day small inside day then surged higher
  • Topside breach targets 8770 (R3 monthly pivot) and 8817 (1.236% Fibonacci Extension)
  • Key Support Break below Pitchfork bisector invalidates near-term strength

NZDUSD Scalp Chart

NZDUSD_Tags_Key_Resistance-_Scalping_the_Correction_Sub_8675_body_Picture_1.png, NZDUSD Tags Key Resistance- Scalping the Correction Sub 8675

Scalp Notes: Bottom Line: 8675 is Paramount- Topside break on a close basis risks further advances into our resistance targets. The RSI signature since the Sunday open remains constructive with only a dip below the 40-threshold suggesting that the recent rally may have run its course.

*We will remain flexible with our bias with a break above 8675 eyeing subsequent resistance targets. It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases. Use this app to distinguish the various trade sessions.

Key Threshold Grid: NZDUSD

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Significance

Bearish Invalidation

Daily

8675

88.6% Retracement

Break Target 1

30min

8700

Big Figure

Break Target 2

30min

8725

Soft Resistance

Break Target 3

Daily

8770

R3 Monthly Pivot

Break Target 4

Daily

8817

123.6% Fibonacci Ext

Support Target 1

30min

8625

Soft Support

Support Target 2

30min

8600

23.6% Retracement

Support Target 3

30min

8575

Soft Support

Support Target 4

30min

8555

38.2% Retracement

Support Target 5

30min

8520

50% Retracement

Bullish Invalidation

30min

8485

61.8% Retracement

Break Target 1

30min

8460

Soft Support

Break Target 2

30min

8436

76.4% Retracement

Average True Range

Daily

65

Profit Targets 15-17pips

For updates on this scalp and more setups attend Michael’s Scalp Webinars or follow him on Twitter @MBForex

Reviews today’s Scalp Webinar for further insights and current trade setups

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

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