News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • $GBPUSD corrects from stretched valuations, however, positioning clear is likely to entice dip-buyers. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/sfFdBx9pN6 https://t.co/j6nnry65SW
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out https://t.co/c51s3IBcEu https://t.co/oQrOpYINOj
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/LSVPlus0vv
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here: https://t.co/J0EPMD2Cfi https://t.co/rPd6B5KzuI
  • Time-cycle analysis suggests that the Japanese Yen could slide significantly lower against its major counterparts. Key levels for AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/WPq4Z9zzEw https://t.co/VzVLrBbL9q
  • The Australian Dollar looks poised to outperform the haven-associated US Dollar and Japanese Yen. However, it may lose ground to the New Zealand Dollar. Key levels for AUD/USD, AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/cuxRxl5WaF https://t.co/pujrmqSxV7
  • Has anyone explained the risk of inflation on the markets in terms of tendies?
  • The US Dollar is trying to break higher versus ASEAN currencies. The Singapore Dollar, Philippine Peso, Thai Baht and Indonesian Rupiah are under pressure. Will follow-through last? Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/JOWG9q01q0 https://t.co/j2ICxgrLa3
  • The commodity-sensitive Canadian Dollar may continue outperforming its major counterparts in the coming weeks. USD/CAD, CAD/CHF, CAD/JPY and EUR/CAD key levels to watch. Get your $USDCAD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/9bkVXQuP5C https://t.co/cLNEG36mZ8
  • We just closed out the heaviest week of volume for the $SPY (US equities) since June and $TLT (Treasuries) since March 16
Forex: EURUSD FOMC Scalp- NZD, CAD, JPY, USDOLLAR Setups Pending

Forex: EURUSD FOMC Scalp- NZD, CAD, JPY, USDOLLAR Setups Pending

Michael Boutros, Strategist

EURUSD Daily Chart

Forex_EURUSD_FOMC_Scalp-_NZD_CAD_JPY_USDOLLAR_Setups_Pending_body_Picture_6.png, Forex: EURUSD FOMC Scalp- NZD, CAD, JPY, USDOLLAR Setups Pending

In last week's Scalp Report, we highlighted the EURUSD which was approaching key resistance at the 1.31-threshold. Indeed this level held with the pair triggering all of our support targets before reversing just below Break Target 4 at 1.2896 (low 1.2875). In Monday's Analyst Pick we noted the long bias initiated at the Sunday gap open with topside targets eyeing, "key resistance at 1.2950 with a break above this level alleviating further near-term weakness into 1.3015." The 23.6% retracement taken from the November advance rests here and the pair now looks poised for a test of this key level ahead of tomorrow's highly anticipated FOMC rate decision where Bernanke is expected to announce a new form of easing as operation twist comes to an end in 2012. Note that we leave room for a run-up into last month's high and the 61.8% retracement from the November high at 1.3030 before invalidating our near-term bearish bias with such a scenario targeting levels just shy of the 1.31-handle. Longer-term prospects remain bearish below this level.

Interim daily support rests with the 38.2% retracement at 1.2950 with a break below this mark exposing key support at 1.2880, a level which has served as a clear pivot for the past few months. Break targets extend down to the 61.8% extension at 1.2840 and the 200-day moving average at 1.2783.

EURUSD Scalp Chart

Forex_EURUSD_FOMC_Scalp-_NZD_CAD_JPY_USDOLLAR_Setups_Pending_body_Picture_5.png, Forex: EURUSD FOMC Scalp- NZD, CAD, JPY, USDOLLAR Setups Pending

The 30min scalp chart shows the euro rebounding off the 50% retracement at 1.2892 with the Sunday gap open offering an obvious long bias early in the week. Interim resistance now stands at the 1.3015 with a breach above our topside limit at 1.3030 eyeing resistance targets at the 38.2% Fibonacci extension taken from the November and December lows at 1.3053 and the 50% extension at 1.3108. The region between 1.3108 and the monthly high at 1.3125 represents a high-risk scenario as it is likely to serve as a pivot in price action.

Minor RSI divergence warns of a possible near-term correction with a break below support at 1.2985 exposing support targets at the 38.2% retracement at 1.2950, 1.2920 and the 50% retracement at 1.2895. A break below last week's low at 1.2875 opens the door to our primary objective at the 61.8% retracement at 1.2840. A quarter of the daily ATR yields profit targets of 20-22 pips per scalp depending on entry. Should ATRto pullback dramatically, adjust profit targets as need to ensure more feasible scalps.

With the FOMC on tap tomorrow, traders are encouraged to limit exposure as we head into the print with the subsequent press conference likely to fuel added volatility in USD based pairs.

*We will remain flexible with our bias with a break below1.30 eyeing subsequent support targets. It’s extremely important in these market conditions to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid: EURUSD

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Significance

Resistance Target 1

30min

1.3015

23.6% Retracement

Topside Limit

30min

1.3030

61.8% / Nov High

Break Target 1

30min

1.3075

Soft Resistance

Break Target 2

30min

1.3105

50% Fib Extension

Break Target 3

30min

1.3125

Monthly High

Break Target 4

30min

1.3160

61.8% Fib Extension

Support Target 1

30min

1.2985

23.6% Fib Extension

Support Target 2

30min

1.2950

38.2% Retracement

Support Target 3

30min

1.2920

Soft Support

Support Target 4

30min

1.2892

50% Retracement

Bottom Limit

30min

1.2875

Monthly Low

Break Target 1

30min

1.2840

61.8% Retracement

Break Target 2

30min

1.2800

Psychological Barrier

Break Target 3

30min

1.2760

78.6% Retracement

Average True Range

Daily

82

Profit Targets 20-22pips

*Ranges between the highlighted cells are not to be played- these are key support/resistance regions which can often serve as a pivot and caution be used around these targets

Other Prospects:

USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Forex_EURUSD_FOMC_Scalp-_NZD_CAD_JPY_USDOLLAR_Setups_Pending_body_Picture_4.png, Forex: EURUSD FOMC Scalp- NZD, CAD, JPY, USDOLLAR Setups Pending

The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker:USDOLLAR) has now come into support at the 38.2% retracement taken from the September advance at 9945. This level continued to serve as a pivot in price action and tomorrow's rate decision could tip the scales. A break below 9945 exposes key support in the region between the 50% retracement and the S1 monthly pivot at 9906-9914. Interim topside resistance now stands at 9963 backed by the confluence of the 23.6% retracement and the monthly pivot at 9993 with a move above the 200-day moving average at 10,003 alleviating further downside pressure. Note that RSI has continued to hold above the 40-threshold suggesting that the pullback off the November highs may simply be a near-term correction in a broader bull market.

USDCAD Daily Chart

Forex_EURUSD_FOMC_Scalp-_NZD_CAD_JPY_USDOLLAR_Setups_Pending_body_Picture_3.png, Forex: EURUSD FOMC Scalp- NZD, CAD, JPY, USDOLLAR Setups Pending

The USDCAD has now approached what I believe to be a possible inflection point with the pair holding just above the support region between the 50% retracement taken from the August advance and the S1 monthly pivot at 9844-9858. The Fed may serve as a catalyst here with longs taken from this range targeting Fibonacci resistance at 9940-9955 (confluence with monthly pivot). A break below 9844 exposes the key support at the 61.8% retracement and the S2 monthly pivot at 9775-9795.

NZDUSD Daily Chart

Forex_EURUSD_FOMC_Scalp-_NZD_CAD_JPY_USDOLLAR_Setups_Pending_body_Picture_2.png, Forex: EURUSD FOMC Scalp- NZD, CAD, JPY, USDOLLAR Setups Pending

The New Zealand dollar has posted an impressive rally off the November lows with the NZDUSD encountering key resistance today in the region between key Fibonacci extensions at 8385-8400. This move now completes a 100% extension off the initial advance off the November lows with a breach above this mark accompanied by a breach of the 70-level in RSI targeting the confluence of the 138.2% extension and the February highs at 8465. Note that while the structure of the advance remains bullish, a pullback here looks to target 8355 and the confluence of the 61.8% extension and the November high just above the 83-handle. Only a break below 8260 invalidates our broader bias.

USDJPY Daily Chart

Forex_EURUSD_FOMC_Scalp-_NZD_CAD_JPY_USDOLLAR_Setups_Pending_body_Picture_1.png, Forex: EURUSD FOMC Scalp- NZD, CAD, JPY, USDOLLAR Setups Pending

Although we rarely take positions in the yen on a scalp basis, tomorrow's print may offer opportunities as the currency typically reacts strongly to dollar developments. That said, we note key resistance at the 100% Fibonacci extension taken from the September and November lows at 83.64 with a breach above the monthly high eyeing the region between the R1 monthly pivot and the 138.2% extension at 83.85-84.00. Key support rests at the confluence of the 23.6% retracement taken from the September advance and the monthly pivot at 81.50.

For updates on these setups and more follow me on Twitter @MBForex

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Review today’s Scalp Webinar for further insights and current trade setups

Join Michael on Wednesday morning for a Live Scalping Webinar on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 1330 GMT (8:30ET)

Introduction to Scalping Strategies Webinar

Beginner Fibonacci Expo Presentation

New to FX Trading? Watch this Video

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES