We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides Download
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The $USD may rise against the Norwegian #Krone and Swedish #Krona in the week ahead as panic about the #coronavirus inflames demand for anti-risk FX at the expense of cycle-sensitive assets. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/9Dqik0Xj2u https://t.co/wTkPVLVYun
  • The $JPY may rise as the S&P 500 outlook risks shifting more bearish on signals in trader positioning. What is the road ahead for USD/JPY given the outbreak of the coronavirus? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/1B6fkUQmem https://t.co/MMAZhdkogT
  • Commodities Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.00% Silver: -1.09% Oil - US Crude: -2.95% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/DZRNhJUklr
  • Asia Equities Update [delayed]: Nikkei 225 (-3.48%) Shanghai Comp (-2.86%) ASX 200 (-2.86%) KOSPI (-2.94%) Check out our Analyst @DavidCottleFX for the latest news on APAC equities amid the #coronavirus here - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/02/28/Asian-Stock-Prices-Wilt-Again-As-Coronavirus-Routs-Wall-St..html?CHID=9&QPID=917720&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • Forex Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.40% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.03% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.14% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.33% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.48% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.84% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/nYMxSnskuL
  • Regional #stockmarkets were naturally hammered following a scary day on #WallStreet. Currencies were pressured too, but with broader differences in fortunes as markets price in lower US borrowing costs. #coronavirus, #AUSUSD, #NZDUSD, #USDJPY, #ASX200 https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/02/28/Asian-Stock-Prices-Wilt-Again-As-Coronavirus-Routs-Wall-St..html?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Cottle&utm_campaign=twr
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.05%, while traders in USD/CAD are at opposite extremes with 68.07%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/3gSaJJnsPg
  • U.S. Vice President Mike Pence: Risk of spread of the coronavirus in the country remains low -BBG
  • Here is some more perspective: 2018 United States population = 327.2m (via U.S. Census Bureau) #coronavirus https://t.co/gzWCmasWCT
  • China's 290m rural workers' employment hit by the #coronavirus, says Human Resources Vice Minister You Jun -BBG
An Intraday AUD/CAD Ascending Channel is Creating Scalping Environment

An Intraday AUD/CAD Ascending Channel is Creating Scalping Environment

2011-02-10 23:14:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

After falling to its lowest level since mid-September on January 12, the AUD/CAD pair has been in a well-defined ascending channel, marked by major volatility. It has touched both the upper and lower ranges of this channel a combined nine distinct times over the past month, making it an ideal candidate to capture pips. However, with little event risk on the horizon for the pair, little chance of a breakout exists, further supporting the notion that the AUD/CAD will continue to adhere to its current trend. Now, the pair appears poised to test the lower range of the channel, before continuing its climb higher once again.

Key Technical Levels

An_Intraday_AUDCAD_Ascending_channel_is_creating_a_scalping_environment_body_audcad_120m.png, An Intraday AUD/CAD Ascending Channel is Creating Scalping Environment

Charts created using Strategy Trader– Prepared by Christopher Vecchio

The AUD/CAD has been in an ascending channel since January 12, when it reached its lowest level since the middle of September. Since then, however, the pair has been marked both swings up and down, trading in over a 400-pip range over the past four weeks. Many of these rallies have been marked by fundamental data; now, without a fundamental catalyst, technical levels are likely to be adhered to until the next significant data release. The pair is trading between its 61.8 Fib and 50.0 Fib retracements, finding significant support at both the 50-SMA and 100-SMA, at 0.99789 and 0.99840, respectively. A break below these levels exposes the 20-SMA and 50.0 Fib retracement, between 0.99500 and 0.99490.

An_Intraday_AUDCAD_Ascending_channel_is_creating_a_scalping_environment_body_audcad_60m.png, An Intraday AUD/CAD Ascending Channel is Creating Scalping Environment

Charts created using Strategy Trader– Prepared by Christopher Vecchio

Looking at the 60-minute charts, the ascending channel is much better defined. The pair is trading off of an oversold signal on the RSI, suggesting upside momentum; however, the pair has yet to break upwards, and with the MACD Histogram remaining negative while the Slow Stochastic indicator issuing a continued sell signal, it appears that downside momentum has yet to run out of steam, and a test of the lower range is on the horizon.

Key Support/Resistance Levels to Watch

Indicator

Timeframe

Level

Fibonnaci – 76.4%

Daily

1.00837

Fibonnaci – 61.8%

Daily

1.00092

Fibonnaci – 50.0%

Daily

0.99490

5-SMA

Daily

1.00482

20-SMA

Daily

0.99500

50-SMA

Daily

0.99789

100-SMA

Daily

0.99840

200-SMA

Daily

0.95839

Bollinger Bands – Upper

120-min

1.00706

Bollinger Bands – Lower

120-min

0.99787

Quantitative Metrics

Heading into the next few hours, with an ATR of 90 on the daily charts, it appears that there is room for the AUD/CAD pair to test both its 61.8 Fib and 50.0 Fib retracements. However, given the technical indicators signaling downside momentum for the time being, bias to the downside remains. Since midday today, the AUD/CAD has been trending lower, and has yet to make a concerted effort to push higher once more. The MACD Histogram on the 15-minute charts confirms this sentiment, showing little momentum to the upside; the bearish divergence remains in place for the time being. As such, there exists significant opportunity to scalp profits between the 61.8 Fib and the 50.0 Fib, as the AUD/CAD will have to clear its 20-SMA, 50-SMA, and 100-SMA on the way down.

An_Intraday_AUDCAD_Ascending_channel_is_creating_a_scalping_environment_body_audcad_15m.png, An Intraday AUD/CAD Ascending Channel is Creating Scalping Environment

Charts created using Strategy Trader– Prepared by Christopher Vecchio

Volatility / Activity Indicators

EURUSD

GBPUSD

USDJPY

USDCHF

USDCAD

AUDUSD

NZDUSD

GBPJPY

EURJPY

ATR (14)

0.0146

0.0144

0.7422

0.0111

0.0075

0.0106

0.0084

1.4506

1.1567

ATR %

1.07%

0.90%

0.89%

1.15%

0.76%

1.06%

1.09%

1.08%

1.02%

5d - 20 d SMA

-0.0031

-0.0100

-0.1330

-0.0067

0.0007

-0.0103

-0.0004

-1.0435

-0.4406

Bollinger Band

0.0591

0.0452

1.9467

0.0415

0.0159

0.0373

0.0221

3.4089

4.0743

Implied Vol (1wk)

10.6100

9.4125

9.1100

10.8800

7.8500

11.1350

11.2400

10.0900

10.4100

Possible Fundamental Affect

The docket is empty for both Australia and Canada over the next few days, eliminating the chance that a scheduled data release will provide any event risk for the potential of a breakout for the AUD/CAD pair. However, significant data will be released Tuesday, when the RBA will release the minutes of their most recent meeting. Until then, barring unforeseen news, the AUD/CAD is expected to hold its range.

Click For Additional Info On Scalping Strategies

To Discuss Scalping Strategies and Get Tips From Other Traders Visit The Scalping Forum.

Written by Christopher Vecchio, DailyFX Research.

To contact the author of this report, please send inquiries to: instructor@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.