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AUD/USD’s Test of Resistance Offers Scalping Opportunity

AUD/USD’s Test of Resistance Offers Scalping Opportunity

2010-07-21 15:26:00
John Rivera, Currency Analyst

The Australian dollar continues to find support as risk appetite remains firm on the back of positive corporate earnings. Apple, Coca Cola, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo all beat earnings expectations raising confidence in the banking system and the potential for sustainable global growth. The AUD/USD is currently re-testing a significant resistance level where several barriers converging and limiting upside potential. Broader optimism may keep the pair supported leading to a period of consolidation as market participants evaluate current valuations levels.

Key Technical Levels

SR 10-07-21_1

The 100-Day SMA at 0.8871 is converging with the 61.8% Fibo of 0.9391-0.8066 creating a formidable barrier. The level has established an upper bound of a developing short-term range between 0.8650-0.8875. The 20-Day SMA at 0.8665 is defining the lower bound and proving to be a potential support level. An ascending short-term channel is providing target levels to enter and exit positions.

SR 10-07-21_2

SR 10-07-21_3

Quantitative Metrics

The AUD/USD’s ATR has steadily declined as the pair has carved out a short-term range. At 136 pips its daily volatility is in the middle of the most traded pairs but it accounts for 1.54% of the spot price which is the second highest ratio. However, the pair’s Bollinger band width has started to widen and at 638 pips the level of variance should be a concern for high frequency traders. Another red flag is an overall increase in one week implied volatility readings with the AUD/USD’s near the top of the pair’s listed below.

SR 10-07-21_4

SR 10-07-21_5

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