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USD/CAD May Present Scalping Target Ahead Of BoC Rate Decision

USD/CAD May Present Scalping Target Ahead Of BoC Rate Decision

2010-07-19 15:09:00
John Rivera, Currency Analyst
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The USD/CAD has begun to quiet following Friday’s volatility on the back of a disappointing U.S. consumer sentiment reading. We could see the pair’s price action begin to significantly consolidate with the BoC rate decision on tap tomorrow. The central bank is forecasted to raise rates by 25 bps to 0.75% as strong domestic growth and an improving labor market has provided policy makers with the flexibility to change monetary policy. However, Governor Carney has placed a greater emphasis on global trends which could lead to a pause from policy makers. The uncertainty surrounding the rate decision could leave traders on the sidelines ahead of the release, providing the low risk environment to execute scalping strategies.

Key Technical Levels

SR-10-07-19-01

The upper bound of a medium term channel offers potential resistance and could limit upside risks for the pair. However, with a BoC rate hike expected downside risks remain for the pair, but converging SMA’s could offer potential support. Short-term price action is looking to carve out a range between 1.0500- 1.0600 which presents potential target levels for entering and exiting positions.

SR-10-07-19-02

Quantitative Metrics

The USD/CAD’s Bollinger band has started to narrow as the pair has settled into a wide range. The level of variance is at 502 pips which is one of the lowest amongst the most active pairs. A declining ATR adds to the attractiveness of the pair as a scalping target, but at 135 pips and accounting for 1.21% of spot placing it in the middle of the majors, signaling that daily volatility still presents risks for high frequency traders. Overall, one week implied volatility readings have risen increasing the chances for breakouts and price swings.

SR-10-07-19-03

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