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USD/JPY May Become Scalping Target as S/R Levels Firm

USD/JPY May Become Scalping Target as S/R Levels Firm

2010-07-13 15:15:00
John Rivera, Currency Analyst
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The USD/JPY has been surprisingly under pressure as a surge in risk appetite has led to across the board dollar weakness. The greenback and yen have been the primary funding currencies and typically see weakness when optimism prevails. A solid start to the earnings season which is forecasted to be positive has pushed equity markets higher. The yen’s gains against the dollar may be limited as it contradicts the pair’s typical high positive correlation with risk trends. Additionally, there is solid support below which could limit downside risks and lead the pair to settle into a more predictable pattern.

Key Technical Levels

SR-10-07-13-01

The 87.00 handle turned away the prior bearish rally and is a solid support level as it has withstood several tests in the past. The 12/18/08 and 1/20/09 lows at 87.18 and 86.69 respectively which were followed by sharp reversal as add to its validity. The 20-Day SMA at 89.09 presents solid resistance and if the technical level continues to converge with support, the pair’s price action may begin to enter a period of increasing consolidation.

SR-10-07-13-02

Quantitative Metrics

The USD/JPY has seen its ATR steadily decline to 78 pips making it the least volatile pair of the majors. Although we have seen the pair trending it has done so in small increments. The recent bearish trend had led to a widening of the pair’s Bollinger band which has started to narrow as it has regained its footing. At 540 pips its level of variance is in the bottom of the most traded pairs adding to the pair’s attractiveness as a scalping target.

SR-10-07-13-03

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