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USD/CHF May Become Scalping Target with Failed Test of Support

USD/CHF May Become Scalping Target with Failed Test of Support

2010-07-06 14:58:00
John Rivera, Currency Analyst
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The USDCHF is back under pressure as the concerns over the European banking system and sovereign debt issues continue to dissipate. Switzerland‘s dependence on the Euro-area demand has seen its correlation with the Euro remain strong which has benefitted the local unit. The pairs is testing major support following a sharp decline which could generate a point of inflection and a period of consolidation making it a potential scalping target.

Key Technical Levels

 SR-10-07-06-01

The 200-Day SMA at 1.0622 has been breached but we could still see the technical level serve as a barrier and limit downside risks. The pair has started to trade around the target level and failure to hold below add to the argument. The USDCHF has traded above or near the technical level since late January adding to its credibility. An ultimate break below increases downside risks but given that we are still in front European bank stress test results, we may see a lack of bullish Franc conviction. The pair has started to settle into a short-term range which will provide target level to enter and exit positions.

SR-10-07-06-02

Quantitative Metrics

The USD/CHF’s Bollinger band has widened to 1246 pips has the pair has been in a sharp bearish decline which is a major red flag for scalper’s. However, it is often at these extremes that we see period’s of consolidation begin to take form. The slight decline in the ATR to 125 pips could be a sign that volatility for the pair is diminishing. Overall, one week implied volatility readings are starting to trend lower which makes the broader environment more conducive for high frequency traders.

SR-10-07-06-03

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