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Leaks and Meetings Fuel ECB Meeting Anticipation

Leaks and Meetings Fuel ECB Meeting Anticipation

2012-09-04 12:21:00
Benjamin Spier, Technical Strategist

As anticipation builds ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank Meeting, Euro-zone leaders are meeting with one another and details have begun to leak from Draghi’s plan. ECB President Mario Draghi told European lawmakers yesterday that buying 3-year bonds would not be considered financing a government and therefore would not break the central bank’s mandate. The Dutch newspaper Het Financieele Dagblad reported today that Weidmann is the only one at the ECB opposing the possible bond purchase program.

Also, EU President Herman Van Rompuy is meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Italian PM Mario Monti is meeting with French PM Hollande as these lines are being written, likely discussing the possible ECB plan and maybe also talking about the ESM permanent bailout fund.

Meanwhile, the Spanish Economy Minister said that Spain will only ask for aid after terms of the aid are clearer. Spain also announced today that they will inject the struggling Bankia group with deb instead of cash. Additionally, we found out that the Spanish jobless claims rose 38,179 from the previous month.

Despite a seemingly imminent announcement from the ECB abut the plan, the Euro still fell lower in today’s trading. EURUSD erased yesterday’s gains and fell below the key 1.2600 line, which could now provide resistance. Support could be provided at 1.2528, by the 76.4% retracement of July’s declines.

For the second day in a row, the only piece of data that had a significant effect on the markets during the European session was the UK PMI. The lower than expected PMI for construction reversed the gains made in yesterday’s session following a better than expected PMI for manufacturing. Swiss GDP disappointed expectations and came in 0.1% lower in the second quarter, but this did not have a significant effect on the markets.

This afternoon, the US ISM manufacturing for August will be released at 14:00 GMT.

EURUSD 1-hour: September 4, 2012

Leaks_and_Meetings_Fuel_ECB_Meeting_Anticipation_body_eurusd_daily_chart.png, Leaks and Meetings Fuel ECB Meeting Anticipation

--- Written by Benjamin Spier, DailyFX Research

“Meet the DailyFX team in Las Vegas at the annual FXCM Traders Expo, November 2-4, 2012 at the Rio All Suite Hotel & Casino. For additional information regarding the schedule, workshops and accommodations, visit the FXCM Trading Expo website.”

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