News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.56% Oil - US Crude: -0.11% Gold: -0.19% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/ZNNdqAFGoX
  • US Senator Schumer: Senate will finish infrastructure and budget bills before August recess $USD $DXY
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.95%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 81.86%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/9gsaW4yXD7
  • Fed's Bowman: - It may take time for some people to return to work - The record number of job opportunities is a good sign
  • Fed's Bowman: - There is still work to be done to get the US economy back on track - Employment remains significantly below where it was
  • USD/CAD bounced off support, but looks only corrective in nature. Short-term charts suggest we will soon see price turn down. Get your $USDCAD market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/zdfLSKm6LF https://t.co/PF5ZXDBxI0
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 0.60% US 500: 0.60% France 40: 0.22% Germany 30: 0.18% FTSE 100: 0.13% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/64Hdik4K4t
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Clarida Speech due at 18:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-03
  • Bitcoin cooling off after an impressive run to end the month of July $BTCUSD #Bitcoin https://t.co/7y7H5rldxM
  • Narrator: Not today. Nice rebound staged off that critical support level with oil and yields firming up a bit on the session. Will bulls push onward to print a higher high? $SPY #Trading #Markets https://t.co/jn1yKFNCLG
German Chatter Dims Hopes for ECB Action

German Chatter Dims Hopes for ECB Action

Benjamin Spier, Technical Strategist

It’s the same story but a different day in Europe, as hopes for strong European Central Bank action in their meeting tomorrow were dimmed by cautious speak from German officials. Bundesbank President Weidmann warned that the ECB must not overstep its mandate and said that governments shouldn’t overestimate ECB possibilities. The Bundesbank already stated that it opposes large scale buying of bonds, and Weidmann’s comments today further lowered the possibility of the ECB approving purchases of Italian and Spanish debt in tomorrow’s meeting.

Another possible bullish development in tomorrow’s ECB was also rebuffed by a German official, when Economy Minister Phillip Roesler said that Merkel and the cabinet ministers oppose granting a banking license to the permanent ESM rescue fund.

However, the one piece of positive chatter came from PM Monti, who said that Italy will not ask for a bailout, but rather might ask the ECB or EFSF for help buying its debt to keep bond yields at a low enough level. Also, the UK’s 80 billion Pound Funding for Lending Scheme opened today, the program is intended to stimulate the UK’s struggling economy.

Furthermore, the European session’s economic data was of no help for investors looking for signs of a recovery. The UK manufacturing PMI for July sent the biggest shock into the currency market, dropping 3 points below expectations at 45.4, and falling to the lowest index level in over 3 years. Euro-zone and German manufacturing PMI’s were revised lower from initial estimates, also setting new 3-year lows. UK nationwide house prices also fell more than expected in July.

The UK PMI was the only index to have a noticeable effect on the markets, sending the British Pound about 55 points lower against the US Dollar. The pair is currently trading below 1.5650; 1.5475 has provided support for a month-long range and 1.5750 has provided resistance.

Central bank decisions are likely to be the driving theme for the next 24 hours of trading. The FOMC will meet this afternoon and set the rate for August as well as weigh the possibility of further quantitative easing. The ECB will set monthly interest rates tomorrow, as well as discuss the topics weighed above, and the BoE will set the interest rate and asset purchase target. Although analysts expect the interests rates to remain unchanged in all 3 economies, Morgan Stanley announced today that they expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates by the end of the year and project the BoE will add 100 billion Pounds to their quantitative easing target by March of next year.

GBPUSD 15-minute: August 1, 2012

German_Chatter_Dims_Hopes_for_ECB_Action_body_gbpusd.png, German Chatter Dims Hopes for ECB Action

--- Written by Benjamin Spier, DailyFX Research

“Meet the DailyFX team in Las Vegas at the annual FXCM Traders Expo, November 2-4, 2012 at the Rio All Suite Hotel & Casino. For additional information regarding the schedule, workshops and accommodations, visit the FXCM Trading Expo website.”

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES