We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
More View more
Real Time News
  • The MACD is often used with its default setting when entering trades. However, this versatile indicator can be customized to assist traders in exiting trades too. Learn how to better incorporate the MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/HnY7gzsI2q https://t.co/5F1DSvAXyy
  • What are some factors affecting $GBP as we head into 2020, quarter one? Download your Sterling fundamental forecast with @nickcawley1 here to find out: https://t.co/YfDSYSATK9 https://t.co/ANFLIuDY4J
  • Trading Global Markets new #podcast features @DailyFX Anlayst @PeterHanksFX , who discusses what assets would benefit in the next #recession. Tune into this new podcast episode hosted by @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/Twr44cZ1GB https://t.co/llKzvZGDpQ
  • The #Euro remains weak against a range of currencies and any move higher is struggling to gain traction as the single currency continues to be sold-off. Get your #EUR technical analysis from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/9B2m0kmd4d https://t.co/ZENxpC59mP
  • The Indian Rupee 2020 outlook is bearish as India faces stagflation risk amid rising onion and crude oil prices. $USDINR may rise in the medium-term as the RBI defers hiking rates. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/lRrlZjAQDw https://t.co/mFv1EOYMjG
  • The $GBP may be on the cusp resuming a 12-year downtrend against the US Dollar as signs of topping emerge at pivotal chart resistance. Get oyur market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/9rM3OjWmBA https://t.co/sUWcSFruHw
  • The $NZD may be on average at risk to further losses against its major counterparts such as the US Dollar and Japanese Yen. Where to for NZD/USD and NZD/JPY from here? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/OFjePKYdCb https://t.co/eo1c6QAVd8
  • $AUDJPY technical positioning hints prices may be on cusp of turning lower after a late-2019 bounce, recoupling with a dovish RBA policy outlook. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/z84Y0V0ZtH https://t.co/wcIGO1emDw
  • The Japanese Yen has faded into 2020 as market risk appetite has held up and hit demand for haven assets. $USDJPY now challenges a key medium-term downtrend, but hasn’t topped it yet.Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/4X6vgCgkB7 https://t.co/FfCkGhtHsm
  • The $USD may fall against the Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krone if commentary from officials at the Davos forum uplift market mood and pressure haven-linked currencies. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/SZAG0yMu3d https://t.co/cBZj5tC0Ny
Euro Well Offered On Renewed Peripheral Uncertainty; Commodity FX Shines

Euro Well Offered On Renewed Peripheral Uncertainty; Commodity FX Shines

2011-03-24 06:23:00
Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist

The Euro has been very well offered over the past few sessions and stands out as the clear across the board underperformer. Portugal is back in the news after its Parliament rejected the government’s austerity plan which led to the resignation of the PM, and this has once again rehashed talk of a potential EU/IMF bailout. Meanwhile, news that Moody’s would downgrade Spanish banks has also been factoring into the latest round of Euro weakness.

We would however warn that the Euro has been very well bid into dips, and could just as easily reverse course back to the topside. There is some initial previous resistance turned support by 1.4035 and the market would now need to break below this level to keep the pressure on the Euro. Inability to establish below 1.4035 would however keep the underlying bullish Euro momentum intact despite the latest minor setbacks.

Sterling was also under pressure on Wednesday with the market weakness correlated with Euro declines and also coming from a less hawkish than expected Bank of England Minutes. The Minutes produced an as expected 6-3 split in favor of the doves, and the MPC was still seen expressing uncertainty over the outlook for the economy. Additionally, the central bank mitigated fears of inflationary pressures after reiterating a calmer and more contained medium-term inflationary outlook.

Some currencies however were seen moving in a different direction, with the antipodeans very well bid and actually tracking higher despite the Euro weakness, with surging commodities prices and a rebound in US equities helping to fuel bids on the commodity bloc. The subsequent release of some higher China PMI data along with reassuring comments from the RBA Financial Stability Review helped to keep the Australian Dollar well bid, while a better than expected New Zealand GDP release was seen driving the relative bids in Kiwi. The Canadian Dollar has definitely been the laggard in recent trade on the commodity bloc, but is still outperforming against the Euro and Pound. Higher oil prices and near record gold prices have given the Loonie a leg up on the other major currencies.

Looking ahead, the key releases in European trade come in the form of some German manufacturing PMIs at 8:30GMT and UK retail sales shortly after at 9:30GMT. Any weakness in the German PMI data could inspire another round of Euro selling, while a softer than expected UK retail sales will likely accelerate Sterling declines. US equity futures and commodities prices are tracking sideways into the European open and consolidate their latest gains.


Euro_Well_Offered_body_Picture_5.png, Euro Well Offered On Renewed Peripheral Uncertainty; Commodity FX Shines


Euro_Well_Offered_body_eur.png, Euro Well Offered On Renewed Peripheral Uncertainty; Commodity FX Shines

EUR/USD: The market has stalled out for now ahead of the key November 2010 highs by 1.4280 and is in the process of a correction. At this point, the pullback can only be classified as short-term corrective weakness and ultimately, only a break back below 1.3750 would be required to negate this structure. In the interim, look for a fresh higher low to carve out somewhere ahead of 1.3800 in favor of the next upside extension towards 1.4280.

Euro_Well_Offered_body_jpy2.png, Euro Well Offered On Renewed Peripheral Uncertainty; Commodity FX Shines

USD/JPY: The latest violent drop-ff to fresh record lows by 76.35 has been intense, with the market threatening a fresh longer-term downside extension below 80.00. However, given the nature of the move, we would not at this point categorize the downside break as anything significant that alters the medium-term outlook. For now, the sidelines are the best place to be and we will look to see where the market closes this week to gain a clearer perspective. A weekly close below 79.75 might open a retest of the 76.35 spike lows, but any additional declines below 76.00 are seen limited. A weekly close back above 81.20 on the other hand, would take the immediate pressure off of the downside.

Euro_Well_Offered_body_gbp2.png, Euro Well Offered On Renewed Peripheral Uncertainty; Commodity FX Shines

GBP/USD: The 1.6300 handle continues to be a difficult obstacle for bulls, with the market unable to hold above the figure for any meaningful period of time. As we had warned in the previous daily analysis, the market has once again rejected trading above the figure to set up a bearish reversal day exposing deeper setbacks towards 1.6000 over the coming sessions. Ultimately, only back above 1.6400 delays.

Euro_Well_Offered_body_swiss1.png, Euro Well Offered On Renewed Peripheral Uncertainty; Commodity FX Shines

USD/CHF: The latest break to fresh record lows below 0.9000 (0.8910) is certainly concerning and threatens our longer-term recovery outlook. Still, we do not see setbacks extending much further and continue to favor the formation of some form of a material base over the coming weeks for an eventual break back above parity. Look for a daily close back above 0.9100 to relieve immediate downside pressure, while back above 0.9370 will officially confirm reversal prospects and accelerate gains. Only a break and weekly close below the recent record spike lows at 0.8910 ultimately delays outlook.

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist

If you wish to receive Joel’s reports in a more timely fashion, email jskruger@dailyfx.com and you will be added to the distribution list.

If you wish to discuss this or any other topic feel free to visit our Forum Page.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.