now looks like it wants to retest the 1.3030 highs, while Aussie/Dollar
has finally managed to close above its elusive 100-Day SMA
. Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc stands out
as a major outperformer, with many now citing its status as the new safe-haven currency play
. The only major currency to give back ground against the Greenback on Thursday was the Yen
, which was to be expected given the notable correlations to risk.
However, we continue to recommend that traders proceed with caution as markets do remain quite volatile and unpredictable. All eyes now turn to the highly anticipated European bank stress test results due later today. Although some have attributed the recent gains in the Euro to the fact that the stress tests results have already been priced in as net bullish, there is certainly always the risk for some disappointment or negative reaction to the actual results. Many analysts are concerned that the standards of the tests will be too lax and thereby discredit the tests, which ultimately could once again weigh on the Euro.
Looking ahead to the European session, German IFO business climate (101.5 expected), expectations (101.6 expected), and current assessment (101.8 expected) are all due at 8:00GMT. Attention then shifts to the UK where BBA loans for house purchases (37000), index of services (0.7% expected), and the all important GDP (0.6% expected) are due at 8:30GMT. The European bank stress test results are not expected to be released until later in the day and as such, price action may be confined to range trade into the North American session.
Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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