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Opening Comment 05.18

Opening Comment 05.18

2010-05-18 04:52:00
Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist
While we are not calling for any major correction just yet, the fact that the lows from Monday trade were posted in early Asia and never challenged again in Europe and North American trade, could suggest that we have finally reached some form of a short-term inflection point. Technical studies are highly oversold and the latest IMM data shows net Euro short contracts increasing to record highs. Usually these kind of developments lead to a reversal in the prevailing trend to allow for some profit taking and healthy market adjustments. 
Many have attributed the Euro bounce from the lows to some reassuring comments from a number of European officials on Monday, along with a stable performance in US equities. EU FinMin Lagarde has said that the Euro is a solid currency, while EU Juncker has said that the Euro is a credible currency and he is only concerned with the pace of declines rather than where the actual rate is at any given time. 
In Japan, the tertiary index came out worse than expected, while the Tankan was more upbeat and showed manufacturers turning positive for the first time in 2 years. In Australia, the RBA Minutes were released, and it was not all that surprising to see a central bank that now appears to be comfortable with current policy. The central bank referred specifically to the Eurozone crisis in their report and said that Australia would not be able to stay immune from the crisis. With the Euro declines accelerating over the past few days, we have finally started to see some catch up in the antipodeans which had been strongly outperforming the Euro. 
Monday’s price action showed some impressive bullish reversal days for the Euro against both the Aussie and Kiwi off of their respective 2010 lows. However, the higher yielding Australian Dollar is still very attractive to many investors and we have seen some upbeat comments on the local economy in the past several hours which are supportive. While Australian Treasury Secretary Henry concedes that downside risks remain, he also expects strong world demand for Australian resources to continue. 
Looking ahead, UK CPI (0.4% expected) and retail prices (0.5% expected) are due at 8:30GMT, followed by Eurozone ZEW (47.0 expected), CPI (0.4% expected), and trade balance (5.0B expected) due at 9:00GMT. US equity futures point to slightly softer open, while oil is also lower and gold tracks moderately higher. 

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com 

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