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Opening Comment 05.14

Opening Comment 05.14

2010-05-14 04:37:00
Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist
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Sterling has also been a big loser of late with the single currency underperforming against all other major currencies on the back of some weaker trade data and commonalities with the Eurozone, in that the rating agencies have also asked the UK to implement fiscal reforms. 
 
The commodity currencies remain relatively bid, with cross rates like Eur/Aud, Eur/Nzd, Eur/Cad, Gbp/Aud, Gbp/Nzd, and Gbp/Cad, all under some intense pressure, trading by multi-year lows. We would however recommend that commodity bloc bulls proceed with caution at current levels, as it would not be uncommon for these currencies to start take a serious hit in the event of another escalation in the global macro economic crisis, or even on the back of some tightening measures from China. Nevertheless, for now, the long commodity currency plays seem to be favored on more attractive fundamentals. Kiwi is the weakest of the three commodity currencies on Friday, as New Zealand retail sales data has come in well below consensus estimates. 
 
Elsewhere, the Eur/Chf cross is now locked in some very tight trade just over 1.4000, and it has become clear yet again that the SNB is actively defending the barrier. The central bank remains committed to preventing an excessive appreciation in the Franc, and will continue to show its hand in an effort to slow and market determined desire to see the local currency trade higher. It would be hard to see a situation on Friday where 1.4000 is not more clearly taken out to the downside, with stops eyed below the figure. 
 
In our opinion, the greater risk to the next wave of substantial SNB intervention will come in a net USD bearish environment. If the Franc continues to remain under pressure against the buck, it at least given the SNB some form of breathing room. But should currencies start to rebound, the threat of Franc appreciation against both the buck and Euro should prove too much to ignore. It will be interesting to see how things play out with the Eur/Chf cross trading by record lows. 
 
Looking ahead, there are no major releases due in the European session, with market participants left to trade on broader global macro developments and themes. The key release on the day doesn’t come until the North American open, in the form of US retail sales (0.5% expected) due at 12:30GMT. US equity futures are relatively flat in early Friday trade, while commodities are mixed with oil lower and gold moderately higher. 
 
 

 

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com 

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