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Opening Comment 05.12

Opening Comment 05.12

2010-05-12 05:02:00
Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist
The latest efforts by the Eurozone to bolster sentiment and prop the local currency are failing, and it seems as though investors are become increasingly bearish on the Euro, the more the single currency fails to show any signs of life, following what appeared to be a substantial aid package. Sterling has been hit the hardest today, with many attributing the relative weakness to an article in the Telegraph that talks about Eurozone officials warning the UK that it should not ask for help if it runs into financial crisis. Weakness in the Australian Dollar is also notable, with the higher yielder weighed down by some disappointing home loan approvals data. 
Technically, it now looks as though there is a lower top in Eur/Usd by 1.3100, which will be confirmed on the break below the current 1.2530, 2010 lows. Talk of hyperinflation, a round of currency devaluations, and another depression have all helped to fuel the elevated risk aversion. Market participants seem to lack the necessary trust and reassurances needed to comfortably exit their long USD positions, and we could continue to see currencies under pressure, much like we had seen in previous elevated risk aversion environments, until proven otherwise. 
Interestingly, we have been seeing a breakdown in correlations between currencies and equities, with the currency markets continuing to warn of ongoing stresses and fears over the state of the global economy, as evidenced through the broad based USD bid tone. Meanwhile, global equities have been trading more optimistically over the past few sessions and seem to be interpreting things differently. In our experience, the currency markets are usually more on the ball and forward looking. Look for equities to come back under pressure on Wednesday, should we continue to see USD demand. It seems as though the marginally lower close in the DJIA, solid corporate earnings and surging metals prices, have all helped to prop equities, but we are not convinced this will last. 
Looking ahead, German GDP (0.0% expected), is due at 6:00GMT, followed by Swiss producer and import prices (0.4% expected) at 7:15GMT.  UK jobless claims (-20.0k expected), claimant count (4.8% expected), and ILO unemployment rate (8.0% expected) are due at 8:30GMT, with Eurozone GDP (0.1% expected) shortly after at 9:00GMT. The UK quarterly inflation report caps things off for European trade at 9:30GMT. US equity futures are tracking quite a bit lower, while oil prices are also weighed down. Gold however, continues to outperform and trades just under Tuesday’s record highs. 

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com 

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