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Opening Comment 05.10

Opening Comment 05.10

2010-05-10 04:52:00
Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist
The rally, which is now eyeing a break back above 1.3000, has been triggered on the news over the weekend of a Eur440B crisis mechanism and a Eur60B stabilization fund to help keep the Euro propped. However, efforts to intervene on a currency’s behalf do not usually end well, and only really serve as a means to slow depreciation. Despite the latest efforts to offer some form of reassurance to the markets, there is still a high degree of uncertainty and fear surrounding the Eurozone debt crisis. It has not helped that Germany does not want to use their taxes for the bailout, while the people of Greece do not want to see higher taxes and a reduction in wages. As such, we would recommend that traders take the latest Euro bounce with a grain of salt and look for opportunities to sell back into what has been a very intense downtrend. 
Politics have been factoring into price action of late, with Sterling still suffering at the hands of a hung parliament result, while Euro gains (though impressive on Monday) have been slowed somewhat on the back of the news that German Chancellor Merkel recorded her worst ever result in regional elections this weekend. Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan Minutes have been released but have also produced and uneventful result, with the Minutes failing to factor into price action. 
While we are not surprised to see the latest developments help to prop currencies overnight, we are somewhat taken aback with the relative strength in the Australian Dollar, which outperforms even the Euro, despite a weaker round of local data. The single currency has benefited greatly from its economy’s ability to outperform even in the face of a global macro slowdown. But with data starting to show signs of softening, we believe the Australian Dollar could be at risk for some relative weakness over the medium-term. A combination of higher rates and softer data would be an unwelcome scenario that would ultimately put a lot of pressure on the higher antipodean. Overnight data has produced a weaker than expected job ads and business confidence showing. 
Looking ahead, German trade balance (14.0B expected) and current account (13.5B expected) are due at 6:00GMT, followed by the Eurozone sentix (-1.0 expected) at 8:30GMT. All eyes then turn to the key event risk for the day, in the form of the Bank of England rate decision (unchanged at 0.50% expected) and asset purchase target (unchanged at 200B expected) due at 11:00GMT.  US equity futures have recovered significantly (up over 2%), while oil has also rebounded materially. Gold has seen some profit taking and tracks lower, with market participants getting out of their safe-haven investment on the improved overall sentiment. 

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com 

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