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Gold Prices May Fall as US PCE Data Stokes Fed Rate Hike Bets

Gold Prices May Fall as US PCE Data Stokes Fed Rate Hike Bets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC


  • Gold prices mark time after June’s fateful FOMC rate decision
  • US PCE inflation data may overshoot forecasts, reviving selloff
  • Breaking support above $1750 may put March floor under fire

Gold prices have struggled to find direction for nearly a week having plunged in the wake of June’s pivotal FOMC meeting. Fed officials signaled an upshift in its rate-hike timeline, pushing yields higher alongside the US Dollar and. Not surprisingly, this weighed heavily on the non-interest-bearing and anti-fiat metal.

The spotlight now turns to May’s PCE data, the US central bank’s favored inflation gauge. The closely-watched core rate is expected to register at 3.4 percent on-year, setting a new 30-year high for the second consecutive month.

US price growth data has increasingly tended to overshoot baseline forecasts recently, suggesting analysts are underestimating the extent of reflation underway. That may set the stage for another upside surprise, stoking Fed tightening speculation and punishing bullion further.


Gold prices are consolidating above support in the 1755-65 congestion area. A daily close below that may set the stage to test the March bottom at 1676.10, with a bit of friction near 1720.80 possible along the way. Resistance is in the 1797.63-1808.40 zone. A push back above that may trigger a rise toward 1850.

Gold Prices May Fall as US PCE Data Stokes Fed Rate Hike Bets

Gold price chart created using TradingView


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC for DailyFX

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.