News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 2.74% Gold: 1.27% Oil - US Crude: -0.04% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/h3JUhrkoia
  • USD/CAD continues to reverse lower, now trading below the June swing high $USDCAD https://t.co/dl3shF0neT
  • Company earnings bolster FTSE 100 index. Downtrend on UK treasury yields continues. Get your market update from @WVenketas here:https://t.co/b7ALnOgbaO https://t.co/MVR4c4VVTZ
  • https://t.co/Ldf98qDw0P
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.15%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 75.10%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/CeIupH0opI
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.61% Wall Street: 0.61% FTSE 100: -0.04% Germany 30: -0.04% France 40: -0.09% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/iblONqMY4m
  • EUR/USD continues to push higher on post-FOMC USD weakness, eyeing test of 1.19 $EURUSD https://t.co/yzkh0Cjlj3
  • It's Robinhood ($HOOD) IPO day, and the stock is down from its open. Here's what I had to say about it ahead of time in an interview with @KristenScholer @cheddar https://t.co/kzf5oAvfJC
  • Nasdaq 100 Index builds on yesterday’s momentum, eying a key level of resistance. Get your market update from @RichardSnowFX here:https://t.co/Kp7lfk2Puf https://t.co/P8N7RoBCKE
  • NY Fed accepts $987.28 billion in reverse repo operations $USD $DXY
Gold, Crude Oil Price Forecast: Fed Narrative May be Challenged on US PCE, Durable Goods

Gold, Crude Oil Price Forecast: Fed Narrative May be Challenged on US PCE, Durable Goods

Thomas Westwater, Analyst

Gold, Crude Oil, Economic Data, Golden Cross – Talking Points

  • Gold eyes high-impact economic data including PCE this week
  • Crude oil strength supported by bullish technical picture
  • XAU/USD puts in bullish “Golden Cross” technical formation

Gold could be in for quite the move in the coming days. The Federal Reserve’s most harped-on narrative – being the view that rising prices are “transitory” – may be challenged by several potentially hard-hitting economic events out of the United States this week. The yellow metal saw a big drop last week after the Fed signaled it may begin raising rates sooner than previously expected.

Thursday will see durable goods orders for May, and the final first-quarter read on gross domestic product (GDP) cross the wires. On Friday, the week will wrap up with the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) print for May. According to the DailyFX Economic Calendar, analysts expect to see durable goods orders print at 2.8%, up from -1.3% in April. No change is expected in GDP at 6.4%.

That leaves PCE, with the core figure – which strips out volatile energy and food prices – looking at a 3.4% expected rise, up from 3.1% in April. The Fed’s baseline average inflation target is set at 2.0%, and while the US central bank concedes that we are likely to see higher prices as supply chain issues are ironed out, a higher-than-expected figure could fuel hawkish bets on policy expectations.

If that scenario plays out, rate traders could send Treasury yields higher, in turn, putting upside pressure on the US Dollar. A stronger US Dollar bodes poorly for gold prices by making it more expensive for non-USD currency holders to buy the asset. The question is, how high and for how long can upward price pressures last before the market disengages from the Fed’s “transitory” narrative?

Gold Technical Forecast

Despite the dramatic fall in prices, the yellow metal’s technical posture looks due for a corrective move higher. A bullish Golden Cross formation between the 50- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages suggest upside momentum may soon emerge. The 1,800 psychological level poses the most immediate near-term resistance. Alternatively, the recent swing low at 1761.04 could provide a support zone to the downside.

Gold Daily Chart

XAUUSD

Chart created with TradingView

Crude Oil Technical Forecast

Crude oil prices have been on the up for the better part of the last two months. Price broke out from a Rising Triangle pattern earlier this month. Since then, MACD has continued to rise, breaking a negative divergence in the oscillator. The next upside targets are the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and the October 2018 swing high at 76.90.

Crude Oil Daily Chart

Crude oil

Chart created with TradingView

Gold, Crude Oil TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Thomas, use the comments section below or @FxWestwateron Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES