News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇦🇺 Westpac Leading Index MoM (MAY) Actual: -0.06% Previous: 0.19% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-16
  • MSCI #EmergingMarkets Index (EEM), which is heavily weighed in Chinese stocks, has been struggling to breach the 54.97 - 55.34 inflection zone A hawkish #Fed (especially amid ebbing #PBOC liquidity measures), could risk weighing the index Breach under 20-day SMA exposes MAR low https://t.co/4WQED01FWV
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/Lt3Z0TODqu
  • Natural gas spot prices have been on the rise, recapturing a key trendline, following the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook. Where can prices head from here? Find out from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/yK48nZD1ag https://t.co/CPBSrdO485
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 Westpac Leading Index MoM (MAY) due at 01:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 0.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-16
  • 🇯🇵 Balance of Trade (MAY) Actual: ¥-187.1B Expected: ¥-91.2B Previous: ¥253.1B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-15
  • 🇯🇵 Machinery Orders YoY (APR) Actual: 6.5% Expected: 8% Previous: -2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-15
  • Heads Up:🇨🇭 US-Russia Meeting due at 00:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-16
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Balance of Trade (MAY) due at 23:50 GMT (15min) Expected: ¥-91.2B Previous: ¥255.3B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-15
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Machinery Orders YoY (APR) due at 23:50 GMT (15min) Expected: 8% Previous: -2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-15
Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Eyeing Markit US PMI Data and Symmetrical Triangle

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Eyeing Markit US PMI Data and Symmetrical Triangle

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

Gold, XAU/USD, Inflation, Treasury Yields, Fed, Symmetrical Triangle - Talking Points:

  • Gold aimed higher as Treasury yields and the US Dollar fell
  • Falling commodity prices may be lowering inflation estimates
  • XAU/USD eyes Symmetrical Triangle for next potential move

Gold prices gained on Thursday as the anti-fiat yellow metal capitalized on a weaker US Dollar and falling longer-term Treasury yields. Weakness in the latter followed a brief spike on this week’s FOMC meeting minutes, where officials noted that it could be soon time to discuss tapering policy. That may pose a threat to XAU/USD, which tends to benefit when yields are depressed given it is a non-interest bearing asset.

A reason why the yellow metal may have climbed on Thursday was falling inflation expectations, which drives what investors think the Fed could do. To that end, there was a general decline in commodity prices. Copper is down over 7% from the all-time high on May 10th. Lumber futures are also down, almost 20% from this month’s top. This may be reducing the urgency for the Fed to unwind dovish policy.

The US 5-year breakeven rate fell to its lowest since the end of April yesterday. The breakeven rate is derived by taking the difference between real bond yields and nominal ones of the same maturity. This results in an estimated gauge of inflation that is priced in by markets. So, what might gold be awaiting heading into the weekend?

Eyes are on preliminary Markit US manufacturing and services PMI readings for May. Having said that, persistent dovish commentary from the Federal Reserve could numb a market reaction to an upside surprise in the data. As such, the skew might be for a more aggressive reaction to a softer outcome. That may offer some upside potential for gold if that results in further bond yield declines.

Gold Technical Analysis

On the 4-hour chart, gold seems to be finding itself within the boundaries of a Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern. This is a neutral formation, where the direction of the breakout could precede the next key move. A climb above the ceiling would likely place the focus on 1890 as XAU/USD aims for the 1900 handle. If not, triangle resistance can hold and keep the yellow metal in a consolidative setting.

XAU/USD 4-Hour Chart

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Eyeing Markit US PMI Data and Symmetrical Triangle

Chart Created Using TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/XAUUSD

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES