News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Tonight will see Chinese markets open after a two day closure to observe mid-Autumn festival. Naturally, there will be increased focus and volatility given the current backdrop of Evergrande default concerns. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/ky6vpyMup7 https://t.co/7TyDu8rl14
  • RT @RiskReversal: A pretty hot @MacroSetup this week, brought to you by @Nadex and @openexc. @GuyAdami & I warn the young, but mighty @CVec…
  • RT @Nadex: The Macro Setup is back! CNBC’s @GuyAdami, @RiskReversal, and special guest @CVecchioFX discuss: -Evergrande vol hurts everlong…
  • Japanese #Yen Forecast: $USDJPY Breakout Imminent- #FOMC Levels - https://t.co/U5iFDDlWPT https://t.co/f1thUfTOg6
  • RT @BrendanFaganFx: 78 counterparties take $1.240 trillion at Fed's fixed-rate reverse repo $USD $DXY https://t.co/IOcumNHCmc
  • here we go - starting right now https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/643096611 https://t.co/SBRIykorY8
  • SEC Chair Gensler: - Working with Congress on crypto would help - A large number of crypto investors could be harmed
  • Pre-FOMC US Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2021/09/21/Pre-FOMC-US-Dollar-Price-Action-Setups-EUR-USD-EURUSD-GBP-USD-GBPUSD-USD-JPY-USDJPY.html https://t.co/Vyj5hwVXpi
  • The big question is whether the Fed announces taper tomorrow or whether they punt that announcement to the November rate decision, waiting for employment data to improve to the point of ‘significant further progress. More market update from @JStanleyFX :https://t.co/tPoLyqNFc1 https://t.co/o3ES0KKlWr
  • SEC Chair Gensler: - The market is in a better position to absorb global shocks - Securities rules give the SEC great power over crypto
Gold Price Outlook at Risk to Biden Stimulus Push, Crude Oil Eyeing OPEC Report

Gold Price Outlook at Risk to Biden Stimulus Push, Crude Oil Eyeing OPEC Report

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

Gold, XAU/USD, Crude Oil, OPEC Report, Biden Stimulus Package - Talking Points:

  • Gold and crude oil prices cautiously weakened as the US Dollar climbed
  • XAU/USD at risk to reports Joe Biden eying USD 2 trillion stimulus relief
  • WTI eyeing OPEC monthly report after some concern about oversupply

Anti-fiat gold prices slightly weakened over the past 24 hours as the US Dollar climbed. Falling longer-dated Treasury yields helped keep losses in the anti-fiat yellow metal from deepening following a 30-year government bond auction. Growth-linked crude oil prices pulled back cautiously. This followed commentary from OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, who said that oil stocks are ‘stubbornly high’.

During Thursday’s Asia Pacific trading session, XAU/USD extended losses after reports crossed the wires from CNN that Joe Biden’s advisors told allies in Congress that another relief package could be about USD 2 trillion. This is much higher than what Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is hoping for, who pushed for more than 1.3 trillion during Wednesday’s Wall Street trading session.

In response, Treasury yields on the longer-dated end soared as the US Dollar received a bid. This weighed on gold prices, and may continue doing so in the near-term amid larger-than-expected stimulus prospects. The package would of course have to pass in the Senate, where Democrats would only have a very narrow majority due to the 50-50 split with Vice President-elect Kamala Harris acting as the tie-breaking vote.

This may also bode well for crude oil prices over the remaining 24 hours. However, do keep an eye out for OPEC’s monthly outlook report, especially after the ominous warning from Barkindo noted earlier. Concerns about oversupply, also in the context of Saudi Arabia unexpectedly planning to decrease output, may work against energy prices. This is as the world’s largest economy remains in battle with elevated Covid cases.

Gold Technical Analysis

Gold prices are coming up on a key zone of support following recent losses. These are a combination of the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), the rising trendline from March and the 1818 inflection point from June. This trifecta could be a critical point for XAU/USD, as a break under exposes the November low for a chance to resume last year’s top – see chart below.

XAU/USD Daily Chart

Gold Price Outlook at Risk to Biden Stimulus Push, Crude Oil Eyeing OPEC Report

Chart Created Using TradingView

Crude Oil Technical Analysis

WTI crude oil prices sit just shy off February 2020 highs after pushing above 49.42, as expected. I highlighted the latter as a key inflection point earlier. A bullish ‘Golden Cross’ is also underpinning the case to the upside after the 20-day SMA crossed above the 50-day one back in November. Climbing above 54.45 exposes the January 20, 2020 high.

WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart

Gold Price Outlook at Risk to Biden Stimulus Push, Crude Oil Eyeing OPEC Report

Chart Created Using TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES