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Crude Oil Prices May Rise If EU Summit Stokes Brexit Deal Hopes

Crude Oil Prices May Rise If EU Summit Stokes Brexit Deal Hopes

2020-11-19 06:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:

  • Crude oil prices down with stocks as Covid-19 upswell brings new lockdowns
  • Gold prices pressure range floor as haven-seeking flows boost the US Dollar
  • EU leaders’ summit may buoy crude oil, gold if Brexit deal prospects brighten
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Crude oil prices tracked lower alongside stocks as risk appetite soured in Wall Street trade. The pace-setting S&P 500 equities benchmark fell for a second consecutive day, suffering the largest daily drawdown in three weeks. Gold prices followed downward as liquidation inspired capital flows into the US Dollar, undermining the appeal of the perennial anti-fiat alterative.

A ratio tracking the performance of the tech-heavy Nasdaq equity index relative to the cycle-sensitive Dow Jones Industrial Average rose as these moves played out, speaking to a rotation in favor of the so-called “lockdown trade”. This flagged the recent upswing in Covid-19 cases and renewed restrictions on economic activity as the catalysts for the market’s dour mood.

CRUDE OIL PRICES MAY RISE IF EU LEADERS’ SUMMIT BUOYS MARKET MOOD

Looking ahead, a gathering of the leaders of European Union member states for a virtual summit may capture the spotlight. The conclave is seen as a last-ditch opportunity to nail down a Brexit deal with the UK such that there is enough time for implementation before the hard divorce deadline at year-end. Last week’s exit of two hardline Brexiteers from UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s cabinet have raised hopes for an accord.

If soundbites from the summit suggest that meaningful progress has finally been made, the markets will have been spared a major source of anxiety. That may brighten investors’ mood market-wide, echoing as supportive for sentiment-sensitive crude oil prices. Gold may find a bit of support as well if the chipper mood weighs on haven-seeking USD demand. Gains might be capped by a parallel rise in bond yields however.

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CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices are marking time at range resistance in the 42.40-43.88 area. A pair of Shooting Star candlesticks (recorded on November 11 and 18) may speak to indecision, which might in turn set the stage for a pullback. Support is in the 34.64-36.15 area, with a break below that targeting the 27.40-30.73 region. Alternatively, a daily close above resistance may then expose the $50/bbl figure.

Crude Oil Prices May Rise If EU Summit Stokes Brexit Deal Hopes

Crude oil price chart created using TradingView

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices are pressuring now-familiar range support in the 1848.66-63.27 area once again. Breaking below this barrier on a daily closing basis looks likely to open the door for a decline below the $1800/oz figure to challenge former resistance in the 1747.74-65.30 zone. Alternatively, an upswing past the 1911.44-28.82 inflection region probably targets the swing top at 1965.55.

Crude Oil Prices May Rise If EU Summit Stokes Brexit Deal Hopes

Gold price chart created using TradingView

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COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Head APAC Strategist for DailyFX

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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