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Gold Prices May Rise as Trump, Biden Talk Up Stimulus

Gold Prices May Rise as Trump, Biden Talk Up Stimulus

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

  • IMF spooks financial markets with 2021 growth downgrade
  • Gold prices may gain as Trump, Biden talk up fiscal stimulus
  • Crude oil prices find support as imports from China rebound
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Gold prices are digesting losses after Tuesday’s sharp selloff. That seemed to be inspired by an updated set of global economic growth projections from the IMF. While the fund moderated the depth of the recession it envisions in 2020, the vigor of the recovery in 2021 was pointedly downgraded, registering 0.2 percent lower for worldwide GDP growth.

That weighed on market-wide risk appetite. Traders have almost certainly priced in the idea that global growth in 2020 will be generally abysmal at this point, and with the calendar well into October are probably looking ahead toward what is likely to happen beyond the remainder of the fourth quarter. Stocks edged down and haven demand buoyed the US Dollar, weighing on anti-fiat gold by extension.

GOLD PRICES MAY RISE AS TRUMP, BIDEN TALK UP STIMULUS

The US presidential election may retake the spotlight in the day ahead. Democratic challenger Joe Biden will take questions at a town hall event while Republican incumbent Donald Trump will hold a rally. The gatherings are in lieu of a debate between the two candidates, which was called off because Mr Trump refused to participate after organizers adopted a virtual format due to his recent Covid-19 infection.

A key topic of discussion is likely to be the need for additional fiscal stimulus after key parts of the government’s initial relief effort countering the pandemic’s economic impact lapsed. Negotiations on a package appear deadlocked despite Mr Trump’s about-face decision to re-engage in talks after abruptly cancelling them just days before.

Biden and Trump seem to concur that further stimulus is needed, but find plenty of room for disagreement on its size and the spending priorities therein. Nevertheless, comments that suggest some sort of policy support is in train regardless of who prevails in the November 3 presidential election may ease traders’ anxiety and stoke risk appetite. This might pull the Greenback lower and lift gold as a consequence.

CRUDE OIL UP ON CHINA IMPORTS GROWTH, INVENTORY DATA EYED

Crude oil prices have impressively diverged from recent risk-off moves. The cycle-sensitive commodity is typically sensitive to adverse turns in market sentiment and might have been expected to weaken alongside shares. WTI gained on news that Chinese crude imports rose in September following two months of decline, bolstering the demand outlook. China is the largest single-country crude buyer on global markets.

From here, EIA crude oil inventory data is expected to show that stockpiles shed 2.1 million barrels last week. A private-sector estimate from API flagged a larger 5.4-million-barrel drawdown yesterday, hinting at the possibility of an upside surprise in official figures. Such an outcome might lift crude oil somewhat, though a still-dismal demand outlook and broadly bloated storage seem to cap upside potential.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices retreated from resistance defining the downtrend since mid-August. Support is in the 1848.66-63.27 area, with a daily close below that threatening a decline below $1800/oz. Alternatively, a daily close above the outer layer of resistance at 1934.00 puts the $2000/oz figure back into the crosshairs.

Gold Prices May Rise as Trump, Biden Talk Up Stimulus

Gold price chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices are hovering near range resistance in the 42.40-43.88 area. A pullback from these levels eyes support in the 34.64-36.15 zone, with a daily close below that targeting the 27.40-30.73 region next. Alternatively, establishing a foothold above resistance may expose the $50/bbl figure.

Gold Prices May Rise as Trump, Biden Talk Up Stimulus

Crude oil price chart created using TradingView

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Head APAC Strategist for DailyFX

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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