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Crude Oil Prices May Struggle to Extend Rise on Hurricane Jitters

Crude Oil Prices May Struggle to Extend Rise on Hurricane Jitters

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:

  • Crude oil prices swing higher as Hurricane Laura nears US Gulf Coast
  • Gold prices stall at key support with Powell, Trump speeches in focus
  • US durable goods orders, EIA crude oil inventories data on tap ahead

Crude oil prices rose, seemingly driven by supply disruption fears as Hurricane Laura neared the refinery hub on the US Gulf Coast. Nearly 85 percent of production capacity in the area has been shut in anticipation of the storm. Some 60 percent was already down thanks to Covid-19 however, so prices’ scope for upside follow-through may be somewhat limited. Gold prices idled.

Looking ahead, the markets may settle into a jittery holding pattern ahead of Thursday’s imposing event risk. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak at a virtual version of the Jackson Hole symposium and is expected to deliver key guidance on the direction of monetary policy. Then, US President Donald Trump will address the Republican National Convention.

A preliminary look at US durable goods numbers for July and the weekly EIA crude oil inventory report headline the data docket. The former may show orders slowed for a second consecutive month. The latter is expected to show stockpiles shed 2.5 million barrels last week, but leading API statistics flagged a larger 4.5 mbd drawdown, leaving room for a price-supportive surprise.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices are probing higher toward the upper bound of the long-standing 42.40-43.88 resistance area. A daily close above its upper bound looks likely to expose the $50/bbl figure. Immediate swing-low support is at 38.74, with a drop back below that probably eyeing the 34.38-78 inflection zone next.

Crude Oil Prices May Struggle to Extend Rise on Hurricane Jitters

Crude oil price chart created using TradingView

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices are pressuring trend line support defining the rise from March lows. Breaking below it on a daily closing basis may mark a meaningful reversal, initially exposing support near the $1800/oz figure. Swing high resistance is at 2015.65, with a bounce above that targeting the record high at 2076.58.

Crude Oil Prices May Struggle to Extend Rise on Hurricane Jitters

Gold price chart created using TradingView

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Head APAC Strategist for DailyFX

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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