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Gold Prices Edge Up as US-China Trade War Cools, Fed-Speak Eyed

Gold Prices Edge Up as US-China Trade War Cools, Fed-Speak Eyed

2020-06-19 06:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

  • Gold prices rise with stocks as US-China trade war worries ebb
  • Beijing pledged to step up US farm goods purchases after meeting
  • Comments from Federal Reserve officials may sour market mood

A risk-on tone is helping to lift gold and crude oil prices into the end of the trading week. The chipper mood seems to reflect ebbing concerns about re-escalation of the US-China trade war. That’s after Beijing said that it will step up purchases of US agricultural products after negotiators from the two sides met in Hawaii.

The yellow metal is tracking higher alongside stocks as well as cyclical currencies and commodities as optimism dulls demand for the safe-haven US Dollar, pushing it lower and boosting the appeal of anti-fiat alternatives. The WTI contract is broadly echoing the rise on Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

FED SPEAKERS MAY DULL UPBEAT MARKET MOOD

Bellwether S&P 500 futures are pointing convincingly higher, suggesting that more of the same is in the cards ahead. A near-empty economic calendar presents few roadblocks for continuation. An assortment of speeches from Fed policymakers – including one from Chair Jerome Powell – may cool enthusiasm however.

The Fed has emerged as a serial spoiler of the markets’ mood over recent weeks. The FOMC statement last week and Mr Powell’s congressional testimony this week struck a similar cord: the economic outlook is at best highly uncertain while scope for a near-term top-up of stimulus is limited.

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GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices remain within a choppy range containing them since mid-April. Support is in the 1679.81-93.92 area, with a daily close below that likely to expose the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1645.40. The upper layer of immediate resistance is marked by the May 18 highat 1765.30.

Gold Prices Edge Up as US-China Trade War Cools, Fed-Speak Eyed

Gold price chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices are inching upward after finding support at 34.78, but a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern continues to suggest that a top is taking shape. A daily close below support likely exposes the 27.40-29.11 area thereafter. Resistance looks to be in the 42.40-43.88 zone.

Gold Prices Edge Up as US-China Trade War Cools, Fed-Speak Eyed

Crude oil price chart created using TradingView

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Head APAC Strategist for DailyFX

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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