News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/v6m2DLdhHa
  • Heads Up:🇮🇳 Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes due at 11:30 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-18
  • Italy PM Draghi states that more stimulus is needed to return to pre-covid - must be vigilant on inflation expectations
  • China's Cabinet will grant subsidy to farmers - state media
  • ECB extends leverage ratio to banks until March 2022
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Gold are long at 84.85%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 75.76%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/9FBAOSUkA5
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.88% Gold: 1.04% Oil - US Crude: -0.39% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/CTOzYyUZ0r
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.09% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.07% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.10% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.16% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.24% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.26% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/SxtA2i2fRq
  • Brush up your knowledge on trade-wars with this tool from DailyFX research briefly outlining trade-war history dating back to the early 1900s here: https://t.co/bZEFtp8kFe https://t.co/vBkN4uScVN
  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.14% Wall Street: 0.02% US 500: 0.00% Germany 30: -0.31% FTSE 100: -0.55% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/1DqihMnbIE
Crude Oil Prices May Struggle to Recover as Market Mood Sours

Crude Oil Prices May Struggle to Recover as Market Mood Sours

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:

  • Crude oil prices struggling to add to OPEC Plus-inspired gains
  • S&P 500 futures show risk-off tilt, TED spread flags credit stress
  • Gold prices down with stocks, testing below range support level

Crude oil prices rose for a third day in what looked like pre-positioning ahead of today’s deployment of the next round of OPEC+ output cuts. The cartel-led grouping of major producers had begrudgingly agreed to the effort after managing to cool tensions between its two largest members, Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Norway likewise announcement output cuts while economic data from the US and China suggested demand in the top two oil-consuming markets may be on the mend. DOE data showed US gasoline demand surged by the most in almost 20 years last week. Meanwhile, mapping technology company TomTom International said traffic in China’s biggest cities is returning to pre-coronavirus outbreak levels.

Oil is struggling to build follow-through in early Friday trade however as market-wide sentiment sours, pulling the cycle-sensitive commodity lower. Bellwether S&P 500 futures are pointing lower ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, suggesting a risk-off tilt in the final hours of the trading week.

Interestingly, gold prices are down alongside shares, once again reminding investors of its dubious “haven” credentials, market lore notwithstanding. The move seems to reflect a pickup in credit market stress that has inspired liquidation and bolstered the appeal of cash.

The TED spread – a measure of funding stress – has conspicuously moved higher over the past 48 hours, adding 4bps. The US Dollar is tellingly on the upswing against an average of its major counterparts. More of the same is likely if the downbeat mood persists.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices are testing below support at 1677.81, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Confirming a breakdown on a daily closing basis seems likely to expose the 38.2% retracement at 1634.54 next. Alternatively, establishing a foothold above the 23.6% Fib expansion at 1728.03 appears to see the next major upside barrier at 1771.30, the 38.2% level.

Gold price chart - daily

Gold price chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices are testing support-turned-resistance in the 19.29-20-.08 area. A daily close above this barrier opens the door for a test of the 27.40-29.11 zone. Breaching the latter barrier would appear to conclusively clear the bounds of the downtrend in play since early January. Immediate support is at 10.27, with a move below that setting the stage for a return April’s shocking spike low.

Crude oil price chart - daily

Crude oil price chart created using TradingView

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES