We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Breaking news

Chinese PMI Data Beats Estimates. Manufacturing 52.0, Est 44.8, Non-Manufacturing: 52.3, Est 42.0

Real Time News
  • Foreign exchange – or “#forex” – markets often pay close attention to politics and central bank policy. We offer a model for traders to gauge their impact on exchange rates. Get your market insight from @ZabelinDimitri and @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/FbXc1Awu6a https://t.co/IZlYdXrnLm
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 6.93% Silver: 0.73% Gold: -0.41% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/wMbZni4GxM
  • "However, this downgrade may be the canary in the coalmine for other emerging market economies that may spread to their OECD counterparts" https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/03/30/Euro-May-Rise-on-ESM-Crude-Oil-Selloff-Deepens-on-OPEC-Price-War.html
  • You can't see it, but I have a seriously dubious look on my face https://t.co/vOEfdaHwyg
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.18% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.13% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.22% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.27% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.69% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.70% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/XyAyUgqavm
  • LIVE NOW! APAC Head Strategist @IlyaSpivak discusses the technical and fundamental $AUDUSD outlook for the week ahead here - https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/378612179?CHID=9&QPID=917720&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 95.82%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 72.90%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/el9cpkaZNX
  • The $USD may rise versus the Singapore Dollar, Indonesian Rupiah and Malaysian Ringgit if capital flows out of #ASEAN countries as key U.S. data risks a selloff in equities. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/JWIRn6MLrK https://t.co/W3zdKcvSCJ
  • LIVE IN 30 MIN: APAC Head Strategist @IlyaSpivak discusses the technical and fundamental $AUDUSD outlook for the week ahead here - https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/378612179?CHID=9&QPID=917720&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • RT @DanielGMoss: Spontaneous spike prior to Chinese #PMI releases Strong results compared to previous record lows Non-manufacturing: 52.…
Crude Oil Prices Fall as Fed, RBNZ, BOJ Fail to Cheer Markets

Crude Oil Prices Fall as Fed, RBNZ, BOJ Fail to Cheer Markets

2020-03-16 03:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:

  • Crude oil prices fall as Fed, RBNZ, BOJ easing fails to cheer markets
  • Gold prices break below 11-month uptrend support amid liquidation
  • Eurozone finance ministers meeting eyed, traders hope for fireworks

Crude oil prices fell alongside stocks as the coronavirus outbreak kept financial markets in a dour mood at the start of the trading week. This is despite an unexpected burst of monetary stimulus from the Fed, the RBNZ and the Bank of Japan. All three central banks held off-schedule meetings and delivered various degrees of additional policy support. The RBA promised more action on Thursday and hinted at a QE program.

That markets brushed off all this additional policy support – with S&P 500 futures locking limit down at the weekly trading open and APAC bourses down close to 3 percent on average – suggests it had been priced in already. It also speaks to the limited capacity for monetary policy to affect the underlying cause of the crisis. Boosting credit access may help dull the pain and buy some time, but perhaps little else.

Gold prices gapped higher at the weekly trading open as the FOMC slashed the target for the target Fed Funds rate to 0-25bps and launched a new $700 billion asset-purchase program. That initial burst of strength failed to find follow-through however, with the metal meandering downward to close the gap before settling in a narrow congestion range. It has struggled to capitalize on market turmoil.

CRUDE OIL, GOLD MAY FALL IF EUROZONE FINANCE MINISTERS DISAPPOINT

Looking ahead, futures tracking European equity benchmarks suggest more bloodletting in the hours ahead. The economic data docket seems mostly moot in the current environment, putting the spotlight on fiscal efforts to contain and counteract the coronavirus and its disruptive influence. A Eurozone finance ministers’ meeting might produce a response to the extent that it speaks to scope for bold, coordinated action.

If they fail to reassure battered financial markets even somewhat, crude oil and gold are both likely to face selling pressure. For the former, rising global recession fears translate into diminished demand prospects. For the latter, the markets’ rush for liquidity coupled with seemingly spent scope for further Fed stimulus speculation amount to liquidation vulnerability.

Top Trading Lessons
Top Trading Lessons
Recommended by Ilya Spivak
Top Trading Lessons
Get My Guide

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices have broken below an 11-month rising trend line, seemingly setting the stage for a decline below the $1500/oz figure. Supports in the 1480-85 and 1439-53 price bands follow. Defusing near-term selling pressure probably requires a break back above 1611.34, with confirmation on a daily closing basis.

Gold price chart - daily

Gold price chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices remain range-bound below support-turned-resistance at 34.86 (61.8% Fibonacci expansion). Immediate support is at 31.11 (78.6% expansion), with a breach below that eyeing the 26.05-33 zone (100% Fib, February 2016 bottom). Returning to the $50/bbl figure is probably a prerequisite for neutralizing the immediate bearish bias.

Crude oil price chart - daily

Crude oil price chart created using TradingView

Building Confidence in Trading
Building Confidence in Trading
Recommended by Ilya Spivak
Building Confidence in Trading
Get My Guide

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.