News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Factory Orders MoM (JUN) due at 14:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 1% Previous: 1.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-03
  • RBA expects the economy to bounce back quickly once the virus is contained and restrictions are eased, based on prior evidence.Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/3uifDNQ8m6 https://t.co/hzrwy7r9qH
  • 🇨🇦 Markit Manufacturing PMI (JUL) Actual: 56.2 Previous: 56.5 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-03
  • Indices Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.91% FTSE 100: 0.32% Wall Street: 0.20% US 500: 0.19% Germany 30: -0.22% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/elOpRp4R9H
  • Heads Up:🇨🇦 Markit Manufacturing PMI (JUL) due at 13:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 56.5 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-03
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.74%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 84.36%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/Q2ryZ6Cznr
  • Oil prices on the slide yet again with Brent crude extending its pullback from the recent high at $75.50 - $CAD at session lows https://t.co/RVdly5BiXl
  • Forex Update: As of 12:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.57% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.35% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.28% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.16% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.11% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.08% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/ip7xNBP66u
  • 🇧🇷 Industrial Production MoM (JUN) Actual: 0% Expected: 0% Previous: 1.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-03
  • 🇧🇷 Industrial Production YoY (JUN) Actual: 12% Expected: 11.8% Previous: 24% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-03
Crude Oil Prices Look to Trump Stimulus Plan for Direction

Crude Oil Prices Look to Trump Stimulus Plan for Direction

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:

  • Crude oil prices edge up as risk appetite steadies, US stimulus plan eyed
  • OPEC monthly report, US CPI might pass without much market impact
  • Gold prices may fall if fiscal fillip pushes back on Fed rate cut outlook

Crude oil prices drifted cautiously higher in a move that seemed corrective as markets digest the breakneck selloff at the start of the week. The advance tracked alongside a rebound in the bellwether S&P 500 stock index – a proxy for market-wide risk appetite.

US fiscal stimulus plans are now in focus. President Donald Trump skipped a press conference meant to unveil a “major” economic package to counter the coronavirus outbreak yesterday. Markets will watch closely for any details from here. A payroll tax holiday is among the steps rumored under discussion.

For their part, financial markets are palpably uneasy with the delay. Asia Pacific stock exchanges are in the red and futures tracking key European and US equity benchmarks are pointing convincingly lower, hinting that a risk-off tilt is emerging across global markets once again.

OPEC MONTHLY REPORT MAY PASS QUIETLY, EIA INVENTORY DATA DUE

Scanning the event calendar, the OPEC monthly report seems unlikely to offer much novelty to investors, limiting its market-moving potential. Concerns about demand headwinds from the coronavirus outbreak and the collapse of the output cap scheme will probably take center stage.

EIA inventories data is also on tap. It is expected to show that US stockpiles added 2.11 million barrels last week. An estimate from API pointed to a more dramatic 6.41-million-barrel build yesterday, which might set the stage for a downbeat surprise on official figures. This could help reanimate sellers.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WTI crude oil is testing support-turned resistance at 34.86, the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion. A handful of minor levels follow but prices probably need to close back above support-turned-resistance in the 42.05-43.39 area to defuse immediate selling pressure. A break of $50/bbl may offset the bearish bias altogether.

Crude oil price chart - daily

Crude oil price chart created using TradingView

GOLD PRICES EYE US FISCAL STIMULUS, CPI DATA MAY GO UNNOTICED

Gold prices edged lower as cautious stabilization buoyed yields and undermined the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets. The yellow metal struggled to capitalize on market turmoil at the beginning of the week however and the subsequent pullback was equally staid, leaving it firmly within its near-term range.

If the announcement of a substantial US fiscal stimulus effort moderates the dramatically dovish shift in Fed monetary policy bets of recent weeks, that may tarnish gold’s appeal and send it lower. February’s US CPI report might pass without much a response, all else considered.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Prices are pulling back from resistance at 1689.30 as expected. Initial support is at 1611.34, with a daily close below that setting the stage for a test of rising trend support in the 1535.03-57.10 area. Securing a foothold under this would suggest gold’s 11-month uptrend has been breached.

Gold price chart - daily

Gold price chart created using TradingView

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES