We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • (Weekly Fundamental Outlook) The medium-term #gold outlook still seems favorable as the #Fed, ECB and more keep rates around 0. Immediate event risk ahead includes the RBA and BoC interest rate decisions, US jobs data and #Brexit talks #XAUUSD - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/chf/2020/05/30/Gold-Prices-Face-RBA-BoC-ECB-US-Jobs-Data-and-Brexit-Talks.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/m8sRNc4L5H
  • U.K. Eurozone Czech Poland Germany Italy France Spain Indonesia Hong Kong Singapore Japan Unemployment stats: US Eurozone
  • Hello there, traders! Heads up: we have got a data-packed week ahead of us. Here are the highlights: Central bank rate decisions: - BOC - ECB Markit PMI data out of: China US Vietnam Malaysia South Korea Philippines Thailand Taiwan India Turkey (continued⬇️)
  • The European Commission proposed an ambitious recovery fund, containing the key parts of the Franco-German aid package with grants at EUR 500bln and loans at EUR 250bln. Get your $EURUSD update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/LmIaveRajb https://t.co/LWTBVLIDBf
  • The trio of central banks overseeing the commodity currencies have already cut their main rates to all-time lows. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/OSUXrN5P3j https://t.co/3nwDel6e28
  • The tension from March continues to subside, allowing for the $USD to slide to fresh two-month-lows. Get your currencies market update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/bRSRjUqg6Z https://t.co/Q35YpIZEd2
  • López Obrador hopes #USMCA will help tighten trade relationships between the US and Mexico. Get your currencies market update from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/bZrUKSCGaS https://t.co/MZ7UoiWWRj
  • The $AUD may suffer as relations between Australia and China deteriorate amid dwindling growth prospects. Euro traders will be closely watching progress in talks about a €500b recovery fund proposal. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/LkEFJViPWY https://t.co/sofO135ElG
  • The US Dollar could rise against #ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar as US-China tensions seem to escalate. The Indian Rupee is also looking ahead of local 1Q GDP data. Get your ASEAN currencies market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/LkEFJViPWY https://t.co/ZGFaQQ3Hr2
  • The #Euro is the big driver here for DXY as it is 57% of the index. It is rising now and trying to break above the March 27 high at 11147. Get your $EURUSD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/6gt3F9LuGP https://t.co/73SaL5AeXD
Gold Prices Struggle to Score Amid Market Rout, Crude Oil Crushed

Gold Prices Struggle to Score Amid Market Rout, Crude Oil Crushed

2020-03-09 07:05:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

  • Gold prices unable to sustain rise to 7-year high amid market rout
  • Stabilizing Fed rate cut expectations may explain gold’s reticence
  • Crude oil prices on pace for worst 1-day performance since 1991

Gold prices spiked higher but ultimately struggled to capitalize amid dramatic liquidation across financial markets at the start of the global trading week. The metal touched a seven-year high above the $1700/oz figure as downbeat Chinese economic data and the apparent collapse of the OPEC+ crude oil output cap scheme sent investors into panic mode. That pushed bonds higher and pulled down yields, boosting the relative appeal of non-interest-bearing alternatives.

The move higher would prove short-lived however, with prices pulling back as the priced-in rate cut outlook implied in Fed Funds futures stabilized alongside the yield spread between 2-year US Treasury notes and an average of equivalents from Germany, Japan, the UK and Australia. This hints that asset values may already reflect as much easing as the US central bank can be reasonably expected to deliver, as least for now.

As it stands, that implies a further 75-100bps in cuts on top of the surprise 50bps reduction triggered last week. The probability that at least 50bps of the adjustment will occur later this month stands at a commanding 100 percent. Even so, the US still enjoys an average front-end yield advantage of 0.48 percent against major alternatives. That probably makes the US Dollar a more attractive haven than non-yielding gold.

GOLD PRICE CHART WARNS UPSIDE MOMENTUM MAY BE FADING

Prices are now hovering below resistance in the 1684.86-89.30 area (50% Fibonacci expansion, February 24 high, with negative RSI divergence warning that a turn lower may be brewing. A daily close back below the 38.2% level at 1656.13 may expose the 1611.34-20.58 zone (January 8 high, 23.6% Fib). A breakout upward sees the 61.8% expansion at 1713.59 as the next level of note.

Gold price chart - daily

Gold price chart created using TradingView

Building Confidence in Trading
Building Confidence in Trading
Recommended by Ilya Spivak
Building Confidence in Trading
Get My Guide

CRUDE OIL PRICES ON PACE FOR BIGGEST DAILY DROP IN 29 YEARS

The response from crude oil prices to the day’s dramatic news-flow was decidedly more straight-forward. The WTI benchmark swooned, gapping lower at the weekly trading open to revisit levels unseen in four years. It is now on pace to shed nearly 30 percent, amounting to the worst one-day performance since January 1991. A daily close below 31.11 (78.6% expansion) may expose the 0.26.05-33 zone (4-year low, 100% Fib).

Crude oil price chart - daily

Crude oil price chart created using TradingView

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.