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Crude Oil Prices May Retreat Before FOMC, UK Election

Crude Oil Prices May Retreat Before FOMC, UK Election

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:

  • Crude oil prices up, gold down on upbeat US jobs report
  • Retracements likely as FOMC, UK election loom ahead
  • Chart positioning may set the stage for larger reversals

Crude oil prices rose as upbeat US jobs data buoyed global growth bets, stoking energy demand expectations. A 266k rise in nonfarm payrolls topped bets on a 180k rise and marked the biggest one-month increase since January. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent, matching September’s 60-year low. Gold prices fell as the rosy result buoyed bond yields, sapping the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets.

CRUDE OIL PRICES MAY FALL AS GOLD GAINS BEFORE FOMC, UK ELECTION

Retracing some of these moves may be in the cards ahead as markets digest ahead of this week’s heavy-duty event risk: the FOMC rate decision and the UK general election. Their outcomes may counter the optimistic tilt in financial markets over recent months. In fact, the possibility for disappointment seems reason enough by itself to encourage anti-risk portfolio rebalancing. S&P 500 futures are ticking tellingly lower.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices appear to be carving out a bullish Falling Wedge chart formation. Confirmation on a daily close above its upper bound – now at 1490.21 – initially exposes the 1516.05-23.05 congestion region. Alternatively, a move below support at 1430.41 may set the stage to probe below the $1400/oz figure once again.

Gold price chart - daily

Gold price chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices continue to grind higher, hitting the highest level in seven weeks. Resistance in the 60.04-84 area is now in focus, with a daily close above that exposing the September 16 swing high at 63.38. Negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing upside momentum however, warning that a reversal lower might be brewing ahead. A push below rising trend support guiding the rise from early October lows – now at 55.67 – may set the stage to retest support clustered around the $50/bbl figure.

Crude oil price chart - daily

Crude oil price chart created using TradingView

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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