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Gold Spiked on Easing Bets, Crude Oil Prices Fell on Growth Risks

Gold Spiked on Easing Bets, Crude Oil Prices Fell on Growth Risks

2019-10-03 03:30:00
Dimitri Zabelin, Junior Currency Analyst

Crude Oil Prices, Gold Prices Outlook

  • Crude oil prices plunged amid risk-off tilt during Wall Street trading session
  • Fears about global growth prospects led to spike in Fed easing expectations
  • Gold prices rallied and partially trimmed losses incurred earlier this month

Learn how to use political-risk analysis in your trading strategy!

Crude oil prices fell along with European and US equity markets amid a bout of market-wide risk aversion stemming from concerns about fading global growth prospects. Gold prices subsequently rallied on the back of a spike in Fed easing expectations that boosted the appeal of holding non-interest-bearing assets. Looking ahead, crude oil prices will be watching for the meeting between Russian and Saudi Arabian Energy Ministers.

Some of the catalysts behind crude oil’s aggressive decline appears to have been the release of the EIA’s inventory report that saw stockpiles increase 3104k, significantly higher than the 1539k estimate. The other was US ADP employment data which also missed forecasts and contributed to the overall sour market mood. Fed rate cut bets jumped after the latter was published and helped boost gold prices.

At the Russian Energy Week, the aforementioned officials whose respective countries constitute two major players in OPEC+ will be meeting, and traders will be anxious for comments or insight on energy policy. The newly-appointed Saudi Arabian energy representative Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has signaled he intends to extend output cuts amid dwindling global demand.

Gold Price Outlook

Gold prices closed 1.40 percent higher on October 4 after breaking below a multi-month rising support channel. Leading up to the breach, gold prices had formed a bearish Head and Shoulders pattern, though this may now be invalidated after the yellow metal failed to continue lower below the neckline. For now, traders may wait to add exposure until price action gives a clearer path forward.

Where are Gold Prices Heading?

Chart showing gold prices

Gold prices chart created using TradingView

Crude Oil Forecast

Crude oil prices plunged and closed 2.90 percent lower for the day, with the session low hitting key support at 57.24/bbl as expected. Brent is now eyeing formidable support at $55.90/bbl, a level not reached since August 7, and before that, January. A break below that floor could result in an aggressive selloff.

Crude Oil Prices Narrowly Miss Key Support

Chart showing crude oil prices

Crude oil prices chart created using TradingView


--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

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